Sheinbaum and Trump (plus Noem and Landau): an Anti-Climatic Postponement amid External and Internal Tensions
After a rather eventful week, President Sheinbaum’s much-anticipated meeting with Donald Trump at the G7 summit was postponed as the American president left early to tend to the Iran–Israel crisis. It might be a stretch to look at Trump’s rain-check as a positive (particularly after the hassle of having to catch a connecting flight to get to Kananaskis and the annoyance of online critics incorrectly describing the episode as a humiliating snub), but having more time to move her pieces could help Sheinbaum – as would dealing with a more cheerful Trump, fresh from, it is hoped, brokering some sort of agreement in the Middle East.
Firstly, Sheinbaum needs to make her case with Trump’s advisors that her administration is in fact doing its part to secure the border, both in terms of migrant flows and dealing with cartels. On the former, the numbers have been clear over the past months, showing a sharp reduction in border crossings. Smoothing things with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem might take some diplomatic work (including, perhaps, a promise to be more careful with her words going forward), but it’s far from an insurmountable task. As with the crime cliché, it is dealing with the good cop, in this case the affable Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, what might ultimately be the greater challenge.
“We’re entering a phase of cooperation like never before,” he beamed, ever the diplomat, after what Sheinbaum characterized merely as a “courtesy visit” – one that just so happened to occur after Reuters’ explosive allegations that the US is pressuring Mexico into prosecuting (and eventually deporting) high-ranking politicians. Both sides emphatically (and predictably) denied the contents of the report. We’ll have to wait and see whether any sacrificial lamb will emerge.
Adding a further layer of complexity to the situation, President Sheinbaum’s greater internal challenge is not dealing with the opposition (or the Schadenfreude-prone Mexican twitterati). It’s managing a decidedly less than fully unified Morena — a sharp departure from just a few months ago, when the president successfully rallied her party during the tariff stand-offs. Nowadays, Sheinbaum has had to politely urge some in the more radical side of Morena to take it easy online. There were initial waves of self-styled “solidarity” posts. But these quickly turned into insults aimed at Trump and Washington, following not just a less-than-cordial spat between one of Morena’s state councilors in Jalisco and Mr. Landau, but also a more serious exchange between Senate President Fernández Noroña and U.S. Senator Schmitt on the matter of taxes on remittances.
For now, even after the Trump cancellation, President Sheinbaum still has a full agenda, including photo ops with India, Germany, the European Council, the G7 plenary and, perhaps now most importantly, a conversation with Canada’s PM on trade. With so much to ponder on the way back from Canada, perhaps the layover in Vancouver might help to clear the president’s mind.
Mexico’s Judges Get the Green Light
Following a razor-thin 6–5 vote, Mexico’s National Electoral Institute (INE) certified the June 1 judicial election, in spite of the controversial nationwide “accordion” operation and other alleged irregularities, most notably including 818 polling stations (just under 1% of the total) that were thrown out, suspiciously high turnout in certain districts, and 3.8 million ballots cast in booths flagged for stuffing or pre-marking.
Counselor Arturo Castillo didn’t mince words, labeling the accordion sheets “potential illicit propaganda” and cautioning that courts might yet overturn the result. His worry? That the same nine Supreme Court hopefuls won by sweeping margins in 23% of polling places and nearly half the states—a pattern that’s hard to chalk up to coincidence.
On the other side, INE President Guadalupe Taddei dismissed the alarm bells as overblown. She argued that tossing out 818 problematic stations out of 84,000 hardly taints an otherwise “excellent” election—quirky handwriting and vanishing voter lists notwithstanding.
Some counselors fretted about the precedent: Dania Ravel warned that tolerating obvious manipulation sends a dangerous message; Uuc-kib Espadas downplayed the scale, insisting this was no repeat of the infamous 1988 election. Meanwhile, Martín Faz pointed out that 61.7% of booths went to the same slate. In the end, however, pragmatism trumped outrage.
Contact:
Gilberto García
Partner and Head of Intelligence
gilberto.garcia@miranda-partners.com
Laura Camacho
Executive Director Miranda Public Affairs
laura.camacho@miranda-partners.com
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