MI’s Mexico Public Affairs Chatter – Jan. 28, 2025

The US-Colombia Impasse and LatAm Solidarity: A Tough Balancing Act for Sheinbaum

The recent escalation between presidents Donald Trump and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, even if short-lived, has sent shockwaves through the Americas. For Canada and Mexico, the looming threat of increased tariffs beginning in February, poses a significant challenge.

With Petro quickly folding to Trump’s demands, Mexico and Canada, the US primary trade partners, are now feeling the heat more than ever. In fact, press reports suggest aides to President Trump are pushing for the tariffs to come into force even before talks take place, as the Colombian impasse reinforced Trump’s view of tariffs as “an effective negotiating tool and effective punishment”. President Sheinbaum celebrated on Monday that an agreement was reached, while reiterating her call for “dialogue and respect”.

Further complicating matters for Sheinbaum, President Petro’s call for an urgent CELAC meeting will put her in a particularly awkward position, as Sunday’s standoff underscores the fragility of inter-American collaboration in the second Trump administration. On the one hand, President Sheinbaum will face pressure from her leftist Latin American peers (and, undoubtedly, the more radical members of her party) to join forces against US unilateralism. On the other, there’s an emboldened Trump. Thursday’s meeting will be a tough balancing act for the Mexican president.

 

The Mexican Response to Trump’s Executive Orders: Legal and Political Dimensions

The Mexican government has reacted with pragmatism to Trump’s controversial orders, though some calls for defiance have started to emerge. In particular, the proposal to designate Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations has sparked intense debate, given its potential to justify US intervention under the guise of counterterrorism.

President Claudia Sheinbaum has said that this designation “does not help”, calling instead for “greater collaboration and mutual respect”. Legal advisers to the president are reportedly analyzing the ramifications of such a designation. Key concerns include whether it could bypass Mexico’s jurisdictional authority and enable military actions without bilateral agreements.

This issue has galvanized support within Morena, as it rallies behind Sheinbaum’s firm stance on sovereignty and migration policies. Morena’s leaders have also emphasized rejecting foreign interference, aligning their discourse with nationalistic sentiments. For instance, Ricardo Monreal, Morena’s majority leader in the lower chamber, has called for “a gradual, orderly and planned disconnection from the US” in the long term, and proposed a constitutional amendment to “defend our sovereignty”.

 

New Legislative Session: Rhetoric vs Pragmatism

The upcoming legislative session starting February 1 will focus on Morena’s priorities amid the challenges posed by Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency. As explained above, a key item in the agenda will be reinforcing Mexico’s sovereignty to counter Trump’s aggressive rhetoric on cartels and migration. Economic priorities are also central to Morena’s agenda, with plans to advance reforms that promote self-sufficiency and protect domestic industries. These include discussions on trade policies and measures to safeguard Mexico’s economic resilience. The party seeks to ensure that Mexico remains competitive while addressing regional trade disputes.

President Claudia Sheinbaum is set to present secondary legislation this Thursday aimed at strengthening Mexico’s state-owned energy giants, Pemex and the CFE. These reforms seek to consolidate state control over energy resources, ensuring that national interests take precedence over private or foreign investment. The proposals will focus on addressing operational inefficiencies, securing energy self-sufficiency, and clarifying regulatory frameworks tied to earlier constitutional amendments. At the same time, the administration will try to assuage concerns from investors, particularly regarding CFE and the president’s bold goals for renewable energy.

 

Judicial election in limbo

The recent disputes over judicial selection committees underscore the challenges facing Mexico’s legal and political systems. Following an order from the Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF), the Judicial Selection Committee was instructed to resume its evaluation of candidates within 24 hours. However, this decision was met with resistance from Morena legislators, who deferred the matter to the Supreme Court, leaving the committee’s fate in limbo. Critics argue that this delay reflects an increasingly politicized judiciary, with constitutional mandates being subjected to partisan influence. The controversy has raised concerns about transparency and the rule of law, as opposition voices warn that these delays could undermine the credibility of Mexico’s first judicial elections, slated for June 2025.

The National Electoral Institute (INE) announced that due to severe budget cuts, it will only be able to monitor 30% of polling stations. This reduction, caused by the 53% cut to the original budget proposed by the INE, raises serious concerns about the election’s transparency and integrity. Key areas like voter outreach, training, and logistical operations have been significantly impacted, prompting criticism from opposition leaders and democracy advocates.

 

  

Contact:

Laura Camacho

Executive Director Miranda Public Affairs

laura.camacho@miranda-partners.com

 

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