Plan México: Lofty Goals, but will the Incentives Be in Place?
The newly unveiled “Plan México” outlines an ambitious policy framework aimed at fostering equitable and sustainable development through a blend of public and private investment. Importantly, and to say the least somewhat ambitiously, the plan doesn’t merely aim to boost the domestic economy, but that of the North American region as a whole. In a rather explicit nod to President-elect Trump, President Sheinbaum’s administration has set reducing the trade deficit with China as one of its main goals, while underscoring that doing so would also benefit the United States and Canada.
Initially, there are thirteen key targets, including increasing national content by 15% in global value chains (GVCs) across key industries. Another goal is to attract $100 billion annually in foreign direct investment (FDI) by 2030, a significant leap from the $35.7 billion recorded as of September 2024 – and a significant departure from the policy outcomes that were championed by the previous administration.
While these objectives are certainly laudable and could provide a much-needed boost to Mexico’s economy, there are important questions about the wide dispersion of the multiple goals, specifics of the roadmap and budgetary alignment. With the nearshoring trend gaining momentum, 2025 poses critical challenges, including looming tariffs, fiscal pressures, and the complexities of the USMCA review scheduled for 2026. Success will hinge on whether the plan can translate aspirations into actionable strategies amidst these hurdles. Mexico’s government poor track record in implementing state-driven policies of this nature (e.g., Tren Maya, Dos Bocas…) should hold in check undue optimism.
Leaving aside the practicality of the goals, at least Plan Mexico for now changes the narrative from the AMLO inherited and much criticized Plan–C. President Sheinbaum finally has her own policies, not inherited ones, and will be held accountable for implementing them.
Plan México’s goals
- To be among the top 10 economies in the world.
- Raise the investment to GDP ratio above 28% by 2030.
- Create 1.5 mn jobs in specialized manufacturing and strategic sectors.
- Raise domestic market share to 50% in strategic sectors.
- Increase national content by 15% in GVCs in the auto, aerospace, electronic, semiconductor, pharmaceutical and chemical sectors.
- Raise domestic market share to 50% of government purchases.
- Foster domestic vaccine development and production.
- Reduce from 2.6 to one year the time it takes to materialize investments.
- 150 thousand professional and technical graduates.
- Foster ESG investments.
- Raise credit penetration for SMEs to 30%.
- Be among the five most visited countries in the world.
- Reduce poverty and inequality.
First 100 Days Message: Not Changing Course
Anyone who expected a change in tone would have been disappointed – but then, we don’t believe many had expected something significantly different. Indeed, the mere fact that there was a special 100-day address to the nation, is part of AMLO’s legacy. In her message, President Sheinbaum stayed the course, pledging her commitment to the nation’s transformation, and defending the constitutional reforms championed by her predecessor, particularly those targeting the judiciary.
Perhaps somewhat more surprisingly, Sheinbaum’s remarks on Mexico’s relationship with the United States were more pointed than last week’s jokey “Mexican America” response to Trump’s ramblings. The President reiterated her willingness to cooperate, but underscoring her rejection of any dynamic that could compromise Mexico’s sovereignty. Monday’s economic message, however, makes it clear that this assertive tone was likely aimed at domestic audiences, in our view.
Much like her predecessor, Dr. Sheinbaum celebrated her economic record, despite some mixed trends. She reported that formal employment reached an all-time high with 22.2 mn jobs, downplaying criticisms that job creation in 2024 was well below expectations, and highlighted that the minimum wage increased by 135% nationwide and by 221% in border regions compared to 2018. The President noted that these achievements did not require raising taxes, attributing the success to honest governance and efficient tax collection.
Sheinbaum Sets the Stage for Mexico’s Foreign Policy: Diplomatic Gathering Highlights Priorities
From January 6 to 8, the Meeting of Ambassadors and Consuls (REC) brought together 150 Mexican diplomats. President Sheinbaum, along with key cabinet members, outlined major priorities, including defending migrant rights, addressing geopolitical challenges, and promoting humanism and justice. As Donald Trump prepares for a second term, the Mexican government is taking steps to safeguard migrant communities, including the deployment of 2,610 legal advisors across consulates. Additionally, a regional summit on migration is set for January 15-16, where Latin American leaders will collaborate on shared migration challenges.
Tourism also emerged as a key focus area, with Secretary Josefina Rodríguez Zamora reporting a record-breaking 86.4 million international visitors in 2024, a 15.4% increase from the previous year. The government unveiled a new “Community Tourism” label to empower local communities, with the Tren Maya playing a central role in international promotions. Key markets like the U.S., Canada, and China will be targeted to expand Mexico’s tourism reach.
Mexicana Faces Financial and Operational Struggles After Relaunch
As 2024 came to a close, Mexicana’s efforts to regain its footing faced significant setbacks. Since its relaunch in December 2023, the now government-owned airline has struggled to meet its ambitious goals. After transporting just 382,000 passengers, far below the 2027 target of 3 million, the airline surprised industry participants by announcing the suspension of eight of its 17 routes, turning its focus to the more profitable ones.
Despite receiving substantial government support, Mexicana’s market share remains under 1%, and its fleet is constrained, now relying on just two aircraft from the Mexican Air Force. The airline continues to grapple with high operational costs and legal challenges. While contracts for new Embraer aircraft are being finalized, which could stabilize its operations in the coming years, the Sheinbaum administration has sent a clear signal that its patience (and monetary support) for the airline won’t be infinite.
Contact:
Laura Camacho
Executive Director Miranda Public Affairs
laura.camacho@miranda-partners.com
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