Mexico Market Chatter – May 8 to 15, 2025

MARKETS

The S&P / BMV IPC was up 1.9% over the week, as the world equity markets continued to rally on optimism regarding trade talks between the US and China. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso appreciated 0.2% to MXN$19.49/USD, and the yield of the 10-year M-Bono was up 7 bps at 9.43%.

The S&P / BMV IPC’s top gainers for the week were: TLEVISA CPO (+10.0%), ALSEA * (+8.4%) and GFNORTE O (+7.6%). On the other hand, the main losers were: GCARSO A1 (-4.8%), BOLSA A (-4.7%) and PEÑOLES * (-4.1%).

LISTED COMPANIES

Banorte projects a 10% credit expansion this year, exceeding the expected growth of the banking sector, according to its CEO Marcos Ramírez. He mentioned that Banorte is cautiously facing economic and geopolitical uncertainty but is confident that tariff volatility will decrease and that the USMCA will be reviewed in the second half of 2025, which will support the country’s economic growth.

Promotora de Hoteles Norte 19 announced the appointment of Alberto Ignacio Sánchez Y Palazuelos as its new Chairman of the Board. Mr. Sanchéz y Palazuelos had been a Board Director since 2024. The company also ratified all current executive officers.

Gentera reached an agreement to acquire an additional 25.1% of ConCrédito shares for MXN$2.495 billion. ConCrédito is formed by Fin Útil, S.A. de C.V. SOFOM, E.R.; Fincrementar S.A. de C.V.; Comfu, S.A. de C.V. and Talento ConCrédito S.A. de C.V.

TelevisaUnivision and NASCAR reached an agreement to broadcast the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series live on Televisa’s Channel 5 in Mexico. The agreement also includes exclusive weekly recaps on TelevisaUnivision’s ViX platforms and social media channels.

Grupo Palacio de Hierro appointed Eléonore de Boysson as CEO effective June 25th, 2025, replacing Juan Carlos Escribano, who will retire after a decade at the company. De Boysson previously served as president for Europe and the Middle East at DFS/Samaritaine under LVMH and was senior vice president at Louis Vuitton.

Invex expects to match last year’s 35% growth in its consumer loan portfolio and anticipates double-digit growth in the enterprise segment, according to its CEO Jean Marc Mercier, who was interviewed by Axis Negocios. In the fiduciary business, Invex will likely outgrow the industry, while in the wealth management and private banking segment, the company is somewhat more cautious. For its digital subsidiary Now, launched two years ago, Invex expects to add around 250,000 clients, maintaining the growth rate of the previous year.

Banco Actinver expects to exceed MXN$300 billion in AUMs this year supported by its wide offering of funds, according to its CEO Francisco Lira, who was interviewed by Axis Negocios.

Orbia announced the successful placement of US$1.1 billion in 6.80% and 7.50% Senior Notes due 2030 and 2035 in international markets. The company will use proceeds to buy-back the 1.875% Senior Notes due 2026, debt refinancing and for general corporate purposes.

Fibra Inn reported an 8.5% YoY ADR increase, which was partially offset by a 6.4 PP decrease in occupancy levels to 60.0% in April. RevPar declined 1.9% YoY to MXN$1,191, while hotel revenues posted a marginal 0.4% YoY decrease to MXN$202.1 million.

Cydsa will repurchase US$9.7 million of its 6.25% Senior Notes due 2027, thus reducing the aggregate principal amount outstanding to US$162.0 million, from US$172.7 million. The tender offer period expired on May 12th at 5:00 PM New York City time.

América Movil’s shareholders approved the payment of a MXN$0.52/share cash dividend (3.1% yield against the current market price) in two equal instalments on July 14th and November 10Th. They also approved the creation of a MXN$10 billion share buy-back reserve and the appointment of Miriam Guadalupe de la Vega Arizpe as a Board Director.

 

OTHER COMPANIES

Nubank posted its 1Q25 consolidated results, which were slightly short of consensus estimates. Financial results for the Mexican subsidiary had been previously published. The company disclosed it reached 11 mm customers in the country, adding an impressive 1 million clients in the quarter, or up 67% YoY. During the call, management said the net interest in margin will be “much tighter” than Brazil’s in the coming months (which prompted some additional disclosure this quarter), but that it should “converge if not exceed” that level – eventually.

Grupo AeroMéxico’s total passenger traffic declined 0.8% YoY in April, mainly driven by a 6% fall in domestic travelers, which was partially offset by an 11.7% increase in international traffic. The load factor reached 85.9%, from 85.3%.

Telefónica Movistar Mexico reported that 1Q25 service revenue was up 5% YoY supported by contracts and B2B, while EBITDA rose 0.1% in EUR terms; no additional data was provided. The Spanish company is evaluating strategic alternatives for its remaining Latin American assets.

Japanese company NHK Spring will invest more than MXN$1 billion to build a new plant in Irapuato, Guanajuato. The project will create 233 direct jobs and strengthen the company’s presence in the state, where it already operates a facility in the Castro del Río Techno Industrial Park.

 

TRADE AND ECONOMICS

Banco de México cut its key interest rate by 50 bps to 8.50%, as widely expected by the Citi Mexico Expectation Survey. The decision was unanimous.

The total loan portfolio of the Mexican banking system was up 12% YoY in nominal terms in March 2025, according to data from the CNBV. This included a strong performance in the corporate (14.5%), financial entities (27.1%), and consumer (14.8%) segments. Meanwhile, government and mortgage portfolios posted more moderate increases of 3.0% and 6.9%, respectively. In terms of credit quality, the banking system’s NPL ratio remained stable at 2.0%, while the Coverage Ratio declined slightly to 157.8%, from 158.4%. The system’s monthly net profit reached MXN$76.09 billion, up 9.7% YoY with an 18.2% ROE, slightly above 18.1% a year earlier.

The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) decreased 0.6 points MoM to 45.3 points in April. This resulted from a 0.9-point drop in the “expected situation of the country over the next 12 months” component and a 0.7-point decline in the “current situation of the country compared to the previous 12 months” component. The CCI fell 2.2 points YoY.

Industrial production decreased 0.9% MoM (seasonally adjusted) in March 2025, mainly due to declines of 2.7% in mining and 1.1% in both manufacturing and electricity, water, and gas supply, which were partially offset by a 0.8% increase in construction. Industrial production grew 1.9% YoY (original data), fueled by a 5.4% YoY increase in construction and a 3.1% rise in manufacturing activity, while mining fell 9.5% and electricity, water, and gas supply declined 1.9%.

Light vehicle sales in Mexico decreased 4.6% YoY to 108,298 units in April 2025, INEGI reported. Production declined 9.1% YoY to 326,069 units while exports were down 10.9% YoY to 256,953 units.

International visitors increased 10.1% YoY to 8.37 million in March 2025, according to INEGI. Total spending rose 5.2% YoY to US$3.67 billion, but average spending per visitor fell 4.5% YoY to US$438.20.

The Mexican economy will expand this year supported by the USMCA, according to Finance Secretary Edgar Amador, who was interviewed by Bloomberg News. Mr. Amador did not provide any specific figure. Meanwhile, Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard expects the revision of the USMCA to take place during the second half of 2025. He also proposed the creation of a semiconductors chapter under the USMCA to consolidate Mexico in the global chain.

Business leaders from the food and retail sectors met with President Claudia Sheinbaum to renew the PACIC agreement, ensuring stable prices for 24 basic products. On the other hand, a group of 22 retailers signed an agreement with the Government to increase supply of domestic products, as part of the “Plan Mexico”.

CETES auction: 28-day CETES -15 bps to 8.40%; 91-day CETES –13 bps to 8.35%; 182-day CETES -6 bps to 8.25% and 350-day CETES -12 bps to 8.37%.

 

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