MARKETS
The S&P / BMV IPC was up 1.9% over the week to close at 57,323.14 pts., helped by a positive global sentiment after the US reached a trade agreement with Japan and then Europe, which more than offset mixed domestic quarterly results. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso appreciated 1.1% to MXN$18.55/USD, and the yield of the 10-year M-Bono remained at 9.50%.
The S&P / BMV IPC’s largest movers for the week were all earnings-driven; the top gainers were: ALSEA * (+18.9%), CUERVO * (+11.3%) and TLEVISA CPO (+11.1%). On the other hand, the main losers were: Q * (-10.1%), KOF L (-6.8%) and OMA B (-4.1%).
LISTED COMPANIES
America Móvil reported strong 2Q25 results. Total revenues increased 13.8% YoY, exceeding consensus estimates, fueled by strong post-paid and broadband growth, and by favorable FX. Service revenues were up 13.4 %, driven by mobile and broadband usage, while equipment sales were 17.3% higher. The post‑paid client base rose by 2.9 million, largely from Brazil, pre‑paid clientele dropped by 1.1 million, broadband accesses grew by 462 thousand with about half in Mexico. EBITDA grew 11.2%, exceeding estimates with an EBITDA margin of 39.5%, down from the prior year’s 40.4%. Net profits reached MXN$22.3 billion, reversing a prior‑year loss and topping Bloomberg’s forecast, fueled by an MXN$11.0 billion FX gain and lower financing costs. Net debt/EBITDAaL ratio (excluding leases) was 1.56x.
Cemex reported mixed 2Q25 results, missing revenue and EBITDA expectations, but exceeding net profit forecasts; EBITDA guidance raised. Revenues declined 4 % YoY, slightly missing consensus, as higher prices in local currency in key markets along with strong volume performance in EMEA, partially mitigated demand conditions in Mexico and the US. EBITDA dropped 11 % YoY, just below consensus estimates, as volume weakness offset cost reductions; cost discipline from the “Project Cutting Edge” restructuring lowered operating expenses 3 %, helping cushion the earnings decline. EBITDA margin contracted by 1.1 PP to 20.0%. Net profits surged 38% YoY, exceeding the consensus on stronger-than-expected tax and FX outcomes. The company raised its 2025 EBITDA savings target to US$200 million, from US$150 million.
Banorte reported mixed 2Q25 results with strong loan growth but lower-than-expected net profits amid rising expenses. Total portfolio (excluding government) expanded 13% YoY, driven by double-digit growth in consumer, commercial, and corporate segments. The NPL ratio stood at 1.1%, up 12 bps YoY due to isolated commercial and corporate cases, but asset quality remained robust with a 158.5% coverage ratio. Total deposits were up 8% YoY, supported by core deposits. Net interest income rose 12% YoY, fueled by improved loan mix and lower funding costs. Non-interest income fell 16% due to a 36% decline in other expenses which more than offset a 136% surge in trading income. Provisions increased 7% YoY, aligned with portfolio quality. Expenses advanced 15% YoY due to business expansion and tech investments, placing the efficiency ratio at 37.5%. Net profit rose 4% YoY, missing consensus estimates, and ROE improved 29 bps to 23.6%, reflecting diversification and capital optimization. The 2025 guidance remained unchanged: double-digit growth in credit portfolio ex-government, stable NPL ratio around 1.1%, ROE above 22%, and efficiency ratio near 37%.
Fibra Uno reported positive 2Q25 results. GLA expanded 0.7% YoY to 11.15 million m², while portfolio occupancy reached 95.0%, down 20 bps. Total revenues increased 10.2% YoY, driven by higher rental income across all segments despite the negative FX effect. Rental revenues rose 10.7% YoY. Administrative expenses climbed 13.0% YoY, and operating expenses grew 16.5% YoY, reflecting inflation and service cost adjustments. NOI grew 9.0% YoY, with an NOI margin on rental income of 82.2%, decreasing 140 bps due to lower variable revenues and FX impact. FFO advanced 7.3% YoY, with an FFO margin of 34.6%, down 110 bps. Fibra Uno will distribute MXN$0.57/CBFI corresponding to these quarterly results, up 9.8% YoY. The Fibra announced the signing of a bonding agreement to internalize the administrator which will include the payment with the Samara, Midtown Jalisco and Montes Urales 620 properties at 1X P/BV. After a 20-month delay, Fibra Next listed its certificates through an MXN$8 billion IPO on the Mexican Bolsa on July 23rd. Its portfolio includes 9 properties with GLA of 754 sq mts.
Grupo Bimbo reported mixed 2Q25 results. Net Sales increased 9.4% YoY, supported by favorable FX conversion, solid performance in Mexico, Latin America, and EAA, and recent acquisitions. North America revenues grew 8.3% in pesos but dropped 4.6% excluding FX, hindered by a soft consumption environment and strategic business exits. Mexico revenues rose 3.0%, driven by a favorable mix and strong categories despite a negative Easter calendar effect. EAA surged 26.1% in pesos and 6.8% in local currencies due to robust momentum in India, Romania, the U.K., Bimbo QSR and acquisitions. Latin America advanced 17.4% in pesos and 8.2% excluding FX, with strength in Latin Sur, Brazil, El Salvador, Colombia, and Chile. Gross profit climbed 9.1%, while the margin contracted 10 bps to 52.8% due to higher indirect and labor costs in EAA. Adjusted EBITDA grew 6.7%, though the margin declined 30 bps to 13.9% as a result of weak North America performance, ongoing transformation investments, and cost pressures in Romania and China. Net profits declined 14.9%, mainly reflecting lower operating income and higher financing costs. During the quarter, Grupo Bimbo acquired the remaining 40% stake in its Colombian business, completed the purchase of Don Don in Southeast Europe, and announced a US$2 billion investment plan in Mexico for 2025–2028.
Televisa reported 2Q25 results that, while weak, were ahead of modest consensus expectations. Total revenues were down 6.3% YoY, primarily due to a 16.3% contraction in Sky revenues stemming from a 21.7% decline in RGUs, with net disconnections of 347 thousand in the quarter, largely from video. Cable revenues fell 2.5% as growth in Enterprise operations failed to offset MSO weakness. Cable RGUs totaled 15.3 million with a net additions of 64.4 thousand, supported by mobile and voice gains that offset continued video losses. Operating segment income decreased 4.3% YoY, with the margin expanding 70bps to 38.4% due to efficiencies and synergies. Net profits reached MXN$474.5 million, a turnaround from a MXN$25.6 million loss in 2Q24, driven by higher operating income, reduced other expenses, and improved contributions from TelevisaUnivision, partially offset by higher financial costs.
TelevisaUnivision reported mixed 2Q25 results with lower sales but improving margins and net profits. Total revenues declined 4% YoY, reflecting FX headwinds, although US revenue increased 2% YoY. Advertising revenue fell 5% YoY, or a 1% decrease excluding FX; this mirrors a US decline of 2% and an 11% decline in Mexico, which was partially offset by ViX growth and stable linear ratings from strong sports content. Net income reached US$96.2 million, compared to US$14.1 million in the prior year. The leverage ratio ended the quarter at 5.5x, down from 5.8x. The company refinanced US$1.5 billion of debt.
Alfa Sigma reported weaker than expected 2Q25 results. Total revenues increased 1% YoY, driven by stable volumes in Mexico, the US and Latam, and pricing in local currencies despite FX pressure. Comparable EBITDA fell 10% YoY due to lower demand in the Foodservice channel and unfavorable product mix in other segments in Mexico and higher protein input costs in Latam. Net income reached US$18 million, dropping 65% YoY, primarily as a result of lower operating income and the absence of one-off items. The company reaffirmed its annual guidance.
Grupo Becle reported strong 2Q25 results, exceeding consensus estimates. In 2Q25, Becle posted a 2.8% YoY increase in revenues, supported by favorable FX effects and a more profitable sales mix in the US & Canada, despite a 4.2% contraction in total volume due to declines in Ready-to-Drink, Non-Alcoholic beverages, and high inventories in international markets. Gross profit rose 4.3%, with gross margin expanding 80 bps to 55.1%, driven by lower input costs, operational efficiencies, and currency tailwinds. EBITDA advanced 16.7%, while the EBITDA margin widened 270 bps to 23.4%, reflecting disciplined expense management and positive operating leverage. Net income surged 300.2%, mainly due to FX gains.
Coca-Cola Femsa reported soft 2Q25 results. Revenues increased 5.0% YoY (+2.4% on a currency neutral basis), primarily due to revenue management initiatives and favorable currency translation, despite a 5.5% drop in volumes caused by lower sales in Mexico, Panama, Brazil and Colombia. Gross profit rose 3.4% YoY, while gross margin contracted 70 bps to 45.3% as a result of higher fixed costs, unfavorable mix and FC impact, partially mitigated by lower sweetener prices and raw material hedging initiatives. EBITDA declined 3.8% YoY, with EBITDA margin falling 160 bps to 18.4%, reflecting higher operating expenses, mainly labor and marketing. Net profit decreased 5.3% YoY.
Grupo Carso reported mixed 2Q25 results with lower revenues but significant margin expansion. Total revenues decreased 1.6% as Infrastructure and Construction experienced a 29.0% drop due to fewer projects and the completion of major construction works. This was partially offset by a 2.9% sales increase at Grupo Sanborns due to promotional events, +4.4% at Elementia/Fortaleza thanks to higher volumes of industrial products, +6.5% at Carso Energy with natural gas transportation, and +8.9% at Grupo Condumex benefiting from a higher FX rate on foreign sales. In addition, Zamajal contributed additional revenues, growing 225.1%. Grupo Carso’s EBITDA rose 18.8% YoY, and the EBITDA margin expanded to 18.4%, from 15.2%. Net income decreased 42.3%, affected by FX losses.
Inbursa reported weak 2Q25 results, pressured by high provisions. The total loan portfolio increased by 12.6% YoY, fueled by both the retail and wholesale segments. The NPL ratio stood at 1.47% of the total loan portfolio. Retail deposits grew by 15.4% YoY. The financial margin increased by 10.8%, supported by higher loan volumes and strong asset quality. However, loan loss provisions increased by 98.5%. As a result, the adjusted financial margin decreased by 5.8%. Net income decreased by 9.8%, primarily due to declines at Banco Inbursa and Seguros Inbursa.
Orbia reported weak 2Q25 results. Total revenues remained flat YoY in USD, as revenue declines in Polymer Solutions and Building & Infrastructure were offset by growth in Fluor & Energy Materials, Connectivity Solutions, and Precision Agriculture. EBITDA contracted 10% due to weaker pricing, lower volumes in key segments, and higher input costs, which also pressured the EBITDA margin by 166 basis points to 15.2%. The company reported a US$126 million net loss, compared to a US$195 million net profit in 2Q24, primarily due to FX losses and a US$143 million tax charge stemming from unfavorable earnings mix and inflation adjustments. Orbia reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of US$1.1-1.2 billion.
Gentera reported strong 2Q25 results. Total loan portfolio expanded 21.6% YoY to a record of MXN$83.7 billion, driven by strong credit origination in Mexico and Peru. The NPL ratio rose slightly by 9 basis points to 3.32%, but improved QoQ, supported by disciplined write-offs and enhanced risk monitoring. Net interest income widened 25.7% YoY, propelled by higher interest income from portfolio growth and moderated funding cost increases. NIM rose 1.3 pp to 40.9% as a result. Provisions increased 15.8%, reflecting loan growth, yet the cost of risk decreased 90 bps to 12.7%. Adjusted financial margin after provisions expanded 1.8 pp to 29.8%, benefiting from credit growth and favorable funding conditions. Net commissions surged 39.6% due to a higher volume of insurance-related fees. Operating expenses climbed 22.3%, influenced by increased loan officer compensation and strategic initiatives. Net income jumped 63.2%, supported by revenue strength and scale efficiencies. ROE advanced 7.1 pp to 24.9%, highlighting improved profitability and operational leverage. Gentera raised its EPS guidance to a range of MXN$5.00 to MXN$5.15 with a similar loan portfolio growth of 13-16%.
Fibra MacQuarie reported strong 2Q25 results. Total GLA expanded 2.5% YoY to 36.4 million square feet, driven by the stabilization of new developments, while average occupancy across the portfolio declined 90 basis points to 94.6% due to softer industrial absorption. NOI including straight-line rents increased 16.9% YoY, reflecting improved rental rates and the contribution from stabilized assets, although the NOI margin contracted 90 bps to 84.7% as a result of higher operating costs. FFO 17.3% YoY, supported by topline growth and stable interest expenses, though the FFO margin decreased 39 basis points to 53.9%. Key developments during the quarter included the completion of the TIJ031 industrial project in Tijuana, adding 385 thousand square feet under stabilization, and the announcement of new leasing activity across 2Q25 totaling nearly 120 thousand square feet in Monterrey and Puebla.
Gruma posted mixed 2Q25 results with lower sales but improving margins. Total revenues decreased 4% YoY due to a stronger US dollar against the Mexican peso, lower volumes in the US food service channel, and a high comparison base in Mexico. Consolidated volume remained flat at 1,084 thousand metric tons, as stronger results in Europe and other Mexican subsidiaries offset contractions in the US ffod service channel, Mexico and Central America. Gross profit was marginally down 0.4% YoY, while gross margin expanded 130 basis points to 39.4% due to cost efficiencies. EBITDA rose 1% YoY, supported by disciplined expense control, especially in logistics and commissions, while EBITDA margin widened 90 bps to 18.1%, from 17.2%. Net income declined 2% YoY, primarily impacted by higher financing costs.
Quálitas reported lower-than-expected 2Q25 results, with the stock plunging 9% on Monday. Written premiums were up 12.9% YoY, slightly below consensus. Earned premiums reached increased 10.6% YoY, marginally surpassing expectations, supported by reserve adjustments and favorable portfolio mix. Insured units rose 7.4% YoY to a record 6.0 million. Combined ratio declined to 92.8% due to an improvement in the loss ratio, beating the 93.5% level of 2Q24 and also outperforming the consensus forecast. Financial income advanced 7.3% YoY, with an 8.4% ROI. Net profits grew 1.7% YoY, below consensus, as the operating performance was partially offset by higher acquisition costs, operating expenses and taxes.
ASUR reported weak 2Q25 results with significant margin compression. Revenues increased 17.9% YoY (+4.8% excluding construction revenues), driven mainly by a 327.8% rise in construction revenues and modest growth in aeronautical and non-aeronautical services. Total passenger traffic slightly declined 0.1% YoY to 17.7 million as traffic in Mexico contracted 1.7%, while Puerto Rico rose 3.2%, and Colombia advanced 1.0%. EBITDA rose 2.3%, with EBITDA margin compressing to 57.7%, from 66.4%, due to cost increases and higher construction activity. Adjusted EBITDA margin (excluding IFRIC12) was 67.6% in 2Q25, from 69.2% in 2Q24. Net profits fell 39.9% YoY, largely explained by FX losses resulting from the appreciation of the Mexican peso.
GAP reported mixed 2Q25 results. Total revenues increased 49.9%, driven by a 26.4% rise in aeronautical revenues and a 41.8% surge in non-aeronautical revenues, both supported by higher tariffs, a weaker peso, and expanded commercial activity. Total passenger traffic rose 4.1% YoY, reflecting new routes and modest growth across most airports. EBITDA rose 31.1% YoY, while the EBITDA margin excluding IFRIC-12 improved slightly to 67.1%, from 66.8%. Net income increased 17.9% YoY. Results exceeded Bloomberg consensus for revenues and EBITDA but missed expectations for net income due to higher financial expenses and tax burden.
Volaris reported weak 2Q25 results, but the stock surged as the company reinstated its guidance for the year, which includes an optimistic outlook for the second half. Total operating revenues decreased 4.5% YoY. ASMs increased 8.7% to 8.9 billion but the load factor experienced a 3.1 PP reduction to 82.4%. Operating expenses grew 8.3%. UAFIDAR was down 25.7% while the UAFIDAR margin contracted 8 percentage points to 27.9%. Net loss amounted to US$63 million, compared to a US$10 million gain in 2Q24. The net debt to U12M UAFIDAR ratio stood at 2.9x, from 2.7x.
Banco del Bajío reported soft 2Q25 results, as the ongoing easing cycle continued to pressure profitability. Total loan portfolio advanced 6.7% YoY, driven by a 9.5% rise in corporate lending and a 14.4% increase in consumer credit, although it declined 1.0% QoQ. The NPL ratio climbed 35 basis points YoY to 1.83%, reflecting a slight deterioration in commercial and consumer portfolios. Total deposits rose 7.0% YoY, supported by growth in both demand and time deposits. The financial margin fell 5.4% YoY due to lower interest rates. NIM narrowed by 123 bps YoY to 5.1%. Provisions soared 85.4% YoY, pressuring the adjusted financial margin, which declined 13.1% YoY. Non-interest expenses increased 7.5% YoY, mainly from higher salaries, administrative costs, and promotional spending. Net profit fell 23.9% YoY, while ROE declined 820 basis points YoY to 18.65%.
Alsea posted strong 2Q25 results, ahead of expectations. Total revenues were up 14.2% YoY (+8.9% excluding FX effects), fueled by brand preference and commercial strategies, particularly in Mexico, Spain, and Colombia. Same-store sales rose 4.9%, supported by growth across brands and regions. The company opened 32 new units, bringing the total store count to 4,795. Digital sales increased 14.7% and now represent 38.6% of revenues, while active loyalty users reached 8.0 million. EBITDA excluding IFRS 16 grew 10.5%, with the margin contracting 40 bps to 14.2%, pressured by input costs and FX. Net profits surged 552.7%, driven by higher operating income and FX gains.
Lacomer delivered positive 2Q25 results. Total revenues were up 11.3% YoY, driven by strong performance from new stores and the “Temporada Naranja” promotional campaign. SSS advanced 6.7% supported by robust results across all formats, with perishables and prepared foods showing the strongest category growth. Gross profit rose 12.9% YoY as a result of a favorable product mix and logistics efficiencies, while gross margin improved 40 bps to 28.7%. EBITDA rose 25.7%, with a margin of 11.7%, boosted by an extraordinary MXN$162 million gain from land sales. Net income grew 31.6%, reflecting the strong operating performance and higher non-recurring gains.
Alpek reported weak 2Q25 results and revised down its guidance. Total revenues fell 13% YoY in USD due to lower volumes and a weaker pricing environment, particularly in the Polyester segment, which faced extended maintenance downtime and unplanned outages. Comparable EBITDA declined 21% YoY, pressured by persistent global oversupply and trade-related disruptions, although it remained flat QoQ thanks to higher reference margins in Polyester. The company posted a US$28 million loss, contrasting with a US$13 million profit in 2Q24, explained by lower operating profits, negative inventory adjustments, and higher taxes. Alpek revised its 2025 comparable EBITDA guidance to US$525–575 million, from US$625 million and updated its Capex guidance to US$130–150 million, down from US$150 million. The company announced plans to cease PET operations at its Cedar Creek facility on July 31st, 2025.
Bolsa reported mixed 2Q25 results. Revenues increased 10% YoY, driven by stronger performance in transactional businesses, higher custody assets and conversion volumes, and favorable FX effects from a weaker peso. EBITDA rose 14% YoY, as operating leverage offset a 6% rise in expenses linked to personnel, technology, and subcustody services. The EBITDA margin expanded by 183 bps to 57.2%. Net profits rose 4% YoY, reflecting the positive operational performance partially offset by lower financial income.
GCC reported weak 2Q25 results. GCC reported a 1% YoY increase in revenues in USD in 2Q25, driven by higher concrete and cement volumes and prices in the US, which offset lower volumes in Mexico and peso depreciation. US volumes rose 20.7% in concrete and 4.2% in cement, while prices climbed 9.5% and 0.6%, respectively. In Mexico, volumes declined 13.1% in concrete and 6.2% in cement, while prices advanced 3.0% and 4.2%. EBITDA decreased 11.6% YoY due to higher production costs, the absence of a prior-year natural gas hedge, and higher freight and fuel expenses, with the margin contracting 460 basis points to 32.5%. Net profits fell 18.0%, pressured by lower operating income, reduced financial gains, and peso depreciation. The revised guidance anticipates flat US cement volumes and prices, mid-teens growth in US concrete volume, mid-single-digit price increases in Mexico, and a mid-single-digit decrease in consolidated EBITDA.
Grupo Rotoplas reported stronger-than-expected 2Q25 results with a substantial sequential recovery. Total revenues were down 0.9% YoY fall (but increased 11.7% sequentially), explained by a 2.5% contraction in products, mainly in Mexico due to the high comparative base resulting from the 2024 drought. This was partially offset by 16.7% growth in services, driven by bebbia, which surpassed 155,000 active subscribers, and RSA Mexico. Gross profit declined 14.9% YoY, while margin contracted 550 bps to 41.3%, due to lower fixed cost absorption in Mexico and Argentina. EBITDA decreased 18.1% YoY (but grew 22.6% QoQ) with a 12.5% margin, which was lower than in 2Q24 but improved sequentially due to expense discipline. Worth noting that profitability was positive in the US. Net income stood at MXN$42 million, 30.9% lower than in 2Q24, reflecting reduced operating income, although it rose compared to the previous quarter.
Fibra Inn posted positive 2Q25 results. Total revenues were up 13.7% YoY, driven primarily by a 3.2% increase in hotel revenues and a 2.4% increase in RevPar, given an 8.8% ADR improvement, which offset a 3.8 PP decline in occupancy levels. The consolidation of Tregnor’s results also contributed. NOI grew 10.6% YoY, although the margin contracted 90 bps to 31.3% due to higher property taxes and maintenance expenses, in addition to Tregnor’s operating costs. However, FFO grew 15.6%, with a 30 bps margin expansion to 19.3%.
Grupo Industrial Saltillo appointed Knut Bentin as its CEO, effective August 18th, replacing Jorge Rada Garza, who is retiring from the company following a portfolio reconfiguration process and the consolidation of Draxton as a global company.
OTHER COMPANIES
Hacienda announced it will issue between US$7-10 billion in “Pre-capitalized notes” with maturity in 2030 in international markets through a trust, to strengthen Pemex’s financial position. Fitch Ratings increased the Outlook on Pemex’s debt to positive.
ECONOMIC
The US Government plans to renegotiate the USMCA in 2026, according to a CBS interview with Howard Lutnick, US Secretary of Commerce. He ruled out a simple technical revision of the agreement.
Headline and core inflation rose 0.15% each in the first half of July 2025, both slightly below the 0.25% and 0.20% expectations from the latest Citi Mexican Expectations survey, respectively. The core component reflected increases in services, while the non-core index climbed 0.16%, driven by higher prices in fruits and vegetables. Annual headline inflation reached 3.55%, below the 3.61% projection, and annual core inflation stood at 4.25%, marginally above the 4.22% estimate. Non-core inflation decelerated to 1.24% YoY, significantly below the 2.35% forecast due to declining fruit and vegetable prices and modest energy adjustments.
The IGAE was flat MoM in May (seasonally adjusted), below the 0.3% consensus forecasts and slowing down against the 0.4% growth in April, INEGI reported. Primary activities rose 3.6%, secondary activities edged up 0.6%, while tertiary activities contracted 0.4%. The IGAE declined by 0.2% YoY (original data), slightly below the consensus expectation of 0.5% annual growth. This was the second month in a row with an annual contraction. Primary activities expanded 5.4%, secondary activities fell 0.8%, and tertiary activities dropped 0.2%.
ANTAD reported that SSS increased 4.7% YoY (self-service +0.8%, department stores +9.1% and specialized retail +5.8%) in June. Total sales rose 7.2% YoY (self-service +3.4%, department stores +10.5% and specialized retail +9.7%.
Economists continue to anticipate a 25 bps interest rate cut at the Banco de Mexico August meeting, according to the July 22nd, 2025 Citi Mexico Expectations Survey. The policy rate forecast remained unchanged at 7.50% for YE25 and 6.75% for YE26, both in line with the previous survey. Median GDP growth projections for 2025 remained at 0.2%, while the 2026 forecast was revised downward to 1.2%, from 1.3%. Headline inflation expectations for 2025 held steady at 4.00%, and the core inflation forecast slightly increased to 4.03%, from 4.00%. For 2026, the headline figure remained at 3.80% and the core component fell marginally to 3.70%, from 3.73%. The peso forecast for YE25 improved to 19.85, from 20.00, and for YE26 to 20.30, from 20.50.
Retail sales grew 1.8% MoM in May, rebounding from April’s 1.4% decline, according to INEGI. Retail sales advanced 2.5% YoY, also improving from the 2.0% contraction in April.
CETES auction: 28-day CETES flat at 7.65%; 91-day CETES -2 bps to 7.95%; 182-day CETES -1 bps to 8.06% and 364-day CETES -10 bps to 8.23%.
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