First glance at Pemex Plan: Looking for efficiencies, few words on private investments
President Claudia Sheinbaum and her Energy team presented her hydrocarbons strategy during today’s morning press conference. The plan’s main focus is to reach self-sufficiency in gasoline and diesel, by stepping up maintenance efforts in the national refining system to boost operating efficiency, and to increase overall efficiency at Pemex, including a reduction in the number of subsidiaries, greater austerity across the board, and a new, simplified tax scheme, which should have a “neutral” effect in 2025, while implying a lower tax burden later on.
As with the electricity strategy, Energy Secretary Luz Elena González laid the blame on Pemex’s current woes on the neoliberal reforms, which resulted in a declining production and rising debt for the state-owned company. Unlike the electricity strategy, however, the presentation spent very little time discussing the potential participation of private players, stating only that they would “foster mixed projects, without losing our sovereignty” for the production of hydrocarbons, petrochemicals, fertilizers and other green sources. While this markedly lower enthusiasm might not be the best of news, more optimistic participants would probably point out that it is an improvement over the previous administration’s decidedly less welcoming tone.
As for Pemex’s financial situation, the President was emphatic in that the company will continue to honor its debt commitments in a timely manner and that, at least in the short term, would continue to receive support from the federal government, given its ability to issue debt at a lower cost.
In terms of production, Pemex will focus on “national needs”, with less emphasis on oil export. As such, it should not be a surprise that the plan calls for a slight decline in oil production from current levels.
Natural gas, on the other hand, is expected to see greater production, though still far from reaching self-sufficiency levels:
Some of the plan’s specifics
— As with the electricity strategy, consumers will continue to receive subsidies in order to prevent gasoline prices to rise above inflation.
— Austerity measures are expected to result in a reduction of costs of MXN 50 bn (~US$2.5 bn); as a reference, Pemex’s debt stands at ~US$99 bn. Bloomberg reported the upcoming budget will include US$6 bn in new government support for the company.
— The strategy calls for action to reduce Pemex’s liabilities with suppliers; no details were mentioned.
Renewables: glimmers of hope for a brighter future
A few weeks ago, we highlighted what we believed was an important event that nonetheless went largely unnoticed even by local media: Energy Secretary Luz Elena González moderated a lecture given by leftist Italian-American economist Mariana Mazzucato at UNAM. It was maybe the first public event that González appeared in after her nomination as the new head of the sector. Criticized by some liberal and neoliberal economists, Mazzucato’s theories have a strong following among left-leaning economists, including some in Sheinbaum’s team, who have adopted her idea of the Entrepreneurial State.
Last week, President Sheinbaum announced the highlights of her strategy in the electricity sector, clearly influenced by the idea of a state capable of leading the growth and innovation of the energy sector. The plan is an explicit declaration that the days of the market structure built around the 2013-2014 Energy Reform and the electricity law are well and truly about to end. Sheinbaum’s team wants to control the electricity sector and lead the expansion in renewable energy, with the financial and technical support of key global and national private sector players that are willing to accept that vision.
A new beginning? President Sheinbaum presenting her Electricity Strategy
While critics have denounced the anti-free market agenda of the plan, others have said that the strategy presented by the new government could be a significant improvement compared to the prior administration. The first notable improvement is that Sheinbaum is welcoming investments by the private sector. Under former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), wind and solar parks were frequently questioned and criticized, and his government did all it could to stop their growth so that the Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) would not be displaced in the market. Sheinbaum’s plan would open a path for them to expand again.
Experts caution that there are still many questions around those broad strokes of a plan, with details scarce at this point, and the secondary legislation only coming in early 2025, and even then, we will still need to wait for more specific regulations issued by the authorities, that could take an additional couple of years, as happened with the 2013-2014 Energy reform. The first long term auction took place until early 2016. However, this first look at the plan has given market participants hopes for a brighter future.
Plan also calls for some compromises
The plan outlines opportunities to generate electricity locally up to 20MW without any CFE intervention. In-situ generation, better known as Distributed Generation, today only allows for 0.5MW projects, enough to power a house or small businesses units. However, people in the industry have found a loophole in the past few years, building a series of “projects” that are clearly over the 0.5MW, but built in such a way that none of the “individual” projects breach this threshold.
These installations are in a gray area, but people in the industry have known that they could face government intervention, as it happened with the legacy permits from the 2013-2014 energy reform like the self-supply power plants. Sheinbaum’s plan will put an end to self-supply power plants, but instead of fighting those multiple 0.5MW installations, her government will opt to recognize them and open a door to legalize them.
These 20MW installations could be a perfect solution for manufacturers lured by nearshoring opportunities in Mexico, as they would be able to create small hubs to build these small-size power plants, especially for solar panels on roofs. This solution is not as attractive as it was in Peña Nieto’s energy reform, but represents an improvement from AMLO’s energy reform.
The mid- and large-size projects will likely fall in the area of interest of CFE. Experts point out that one of the options under Sheinbaum’s plan that calls for private power plants to supply directly to CFE is basically a continuation of the Independent Power Purchase scheme created by the 1992 electricity law. The other option of a mixed investment where CFE will hold 54% participation of the equity still needs more details to understand how it would work.
The plan lets the wholesale market survive and, at least at this point, does not consider significantly altering its rules. Experts believe that it can still work under the free-market premise of dispatching the cheapest electricity first. However, with the introduction of the other schemes, and without the expectation that the government would hold a new tender like the ones held by Peña Nieto’s administration, it seems that the market could be destined to disappear in the future. This would be dramatic for multiple companies and investors that bet on that model, however, the government may find a way to compensate them so they don’t end up losing their investments, which would almost certainly lead to protracted legal battles.
Time to act, despite imperfect information
Even if the information is less than perfect, private players must start figuring out if this is enough to restart investing in Mexico. We believe it is a first sign of good faith from the government, a sentiment we have also found in our conversations with market participants. We acknowledge questions remain, and some see the objectives as overly ambitious, particularly the 2030 clean energy targets. In 2023, the country generated 24% of its electricity from clean sources, a questionable figure as it included cogeneration, which is not considered clean in international standards. Reaching 45% in less than five years sounds more than challenging even in the best of circumstances.
Source: IEA
But some investors might find enough room to trust in this administration, and some new projects could see the light in the next six years. Moreover, the sector can’t overlook that after former President Donald Trump’s landslide victory on 5 November, the renewable investments all around the world could be affected. The renewable market can anticipate that they won’t have the same support in the US as they have now under Joe Biden’s administration. It’s hard to know how bad things can turn for the industry locally and globally as Trump takes office next year. Would this mean renewables would be more willing to jump into other markets like Mexico? Is Mexico ready to receive them? It’s an equation with a lot of moving parts.
Some of the plan’s specifics
— Consumers will continue to receive subsidies in order to prevent electricity prices to rise above inflation. The government will also subsidize solar panels in northern Mexico, starting in Mexicali, and start a program of energy-saving wood stoves (a subject close to President Sheinbaum, who wrote her dissertation on the matter).
— Under the strategy presented, the government expects that the state-owned utility CFE will invest around US$23.4bn over the next six years: US$12.3bn in generation, US$7.5bn in transmission lines, and US$3.6bn in distribution lines.
— The plan contemplates a base scenario of 9,540 MW of new generation capacity, of which 32% will come from clean sources.
— A second scenario forecast additional capacity of 21,846 MW with 38% coming from clean sources, however, here the government accounts for its accounting cogeneration, which is not internationally considered as a clean energy source.
— In the highest scenario, Mexico will be adding 28,947 MW, 45% coming from clean sources, a shift in the goal promised by Sheibaum in her inauguration speech, as she promised that percentage will be solely from renewable capacity.
More Pemex news
—Pemex’s crude exports plunged by 41.3% in September from a year earlier, and recorded its lowest volume sold abroad in at least 34 years. The state-owned company exported 656,250 b/d of crude in September, down from 1.05mn b/d a year earlier, according to company data. On a monthly basis, exports declined by 10.2%. The figure is the lowest since January 1990, the last figure available in Pemex’s database. Since the AMLO administration, Mexico’s government has set the goal to stop selling crude abroad and use it for itnernal purposes as part of its energy policy, a target seemingly maintained by President Sheinbaum.
— Pemex received further government funding for its new 340,000 b/d Olmeca refinery, as project costs have more than doubled from original estimates and the facility has not ramped up operations. Mexico’s government transferred MXN 42.7bn (~US$2.1 bn) during the third quarter to Pemex, bringing the total refinery spending since 2019 to MXN 351.32bn (~US$17.3 bn), according to Pemex’s earnings reports. Initial estimates for the refinery, one of AMLO’s flagship projects, were US$8bn, with a promised operational date well before his term ended on September 30 of this year.
— According to Bloomberg, Mexico is set to allocate around $6 billion in its 2025 draft budget to aid state oil giant Pemex, signaling sustained government backing amid its debt challenges. The support package, set to be unveiled on November 15, addresses Pemex’s $9 billion in debt due in 2025, with additional maturities of $13 billion anticipated in 2026. President Sheinbaum has indicated her administration will continue policies initiated by her predecessor, who provided around $80 billion in support during his term. Recent investor interest reflects optimism over continued state backing, with Pemex bonds rising last month on expectations of a liability management plan.
— Pemex updated its refining processed oil data for September. Initially, the state-owned company reported zero barrels processed in September, however, the figure was updated after, and now Pemex says it run 18,118 barrels per day. The figure is still well behind the 84,000 barrels per day of August, and half of the refinery capacity as Pemex management promised it would be working by now.
Other energy news
— A panelist at an event from US think tank Wilson Center highlight that the judicial and energy reforms in Mexico will likely be a new source of international arbitrations. Duncan Wood, CEO at US think tank Pacific Council on International Policy, pointed out that arbitration picked up during AMLO’s administration and a new wave of international conflicts could come in the current administration. Energy Ministry official Fernando Zendejas and energy expert Miriam Grustein were also part of the panel. While the constitutional modifications are not explicit about the current electricity dispatch that prioritizes the cheapest electricity, it’s possible that the government will end up proposing prioritizing CFE’s electricity despite its higher costs, said the panelists during the event.
— Panelists at the BritCham’s Energy Day were decidedly more optimistic about the sector’s outlook. The near-universal consensus was that the new administration’s aggressive energy goals, from renewables to Pemex’s production, make private participation a must. Moreover, we were positively surprised by statements from several panelists who noted a markedly different approach, even this early in the administration, with more meetings and open dialogue. And while participants did note the need to wait for clarity on the rules, the vast majority seemed unconcerned about potential impacts from the recent judicial reform.
— Congress published the bill it will discuss in the upcoming days to eliminate the independent regulators including the Hydrocarbon National Commission (CNH) and the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE). The proposal does not explain how and which authority will absorb their duties, and the specifics will be discuss in February next year, when Congress will restart sessions.
— Mexico’s hydrocarbon regulator CNH will allow Italian company Eni to relinquish its offshore shallow-water area in the Gulf of Mexico after it failed to find the project technically or economically viable. Eni decided to stop investing in the area in front of the coasts of the state of Tabasco. The company will probably need to pay a fine as it did not complete the minimal investment program in the area.
— CNH also approved the draft for its 2025 budget including spending around MXN 739 mn, a 6.5% increase compared to the approved 2024 budget. The budget also proposes reducing staff by 5%. The draft will be part of the budget proposal that must go to Congress before November 15.
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