Referee Under Review
Guadalupe Taddei’s departure gives Morena an opportunity to restore confidence in Mexico’s electoral authority. But the governing party’s record of institutional appointments suggests political loyalty may count for more than independence.
The resignation of Guadalupe Taddei as president of Mexico’s Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE) has shifted attention from the allegations surrounding her management to a more consequential question: who will replace her, and what will the appointment reveal about the balance of power within Morena?
Gudadalupe Taddei announced her resignation as head of INE on 25 October. (Photo: INE)
Taddei formally submitted her resignation on Monday, October 26, after announcing her decision on Sunday. Reports about her relationship with José Alfredo Hernández Casillas, a businessman whose companies secured contracts with the INE, prompted investigations into possible conflicts of interest, collusion and financial irregularities. No finding of wrongdoing has yet been made.
Her departure, less than eight months before the June 2027 elections, leaves the governing coalition facing a choice. It can use its congressional strength to select a successor fully aligned with its political preferences, or negotiate a candidate acceptable to a wider range of political parties and electoral councillors.
In principle, the second approach could help restore confidence in an institution whose independence has been questioned. In practice, Morena’s record of appointments to the judiciary, electoral institutions and other public bodies offers limited grounds for expecting it to prioritise candidates whose independence might make them difficult to control.
The appointment is particularly important because the new president will complete Taddei’s term, which runs until April 2032. The successor will lead the INE through the next presidential electoral cycle.
Who chooses the successor?
The immediate responsibility falls to the INE’s ten remaining councillors, who must select an interim president. Initial discussions have not produced an agreement, reflecting divisions within the institution that predate Taddei’s departure.
The permanent appointment is more political. The Chamber of Deputies must establish a five-member evaluation committee, three chosen by congressional leaders and two by the National Human Rights Commission (CNDH). Candidates will be assessed before the Chamber votes.
The appointment requires two-thirds of the deputies present. If no agreement is reached, the law provides for a lottery among shortlisted candidates.
Ricardo Monreal, Morena’s leader in the Chamber, expects the process to take four to five weeks. His role will be important, both in coordinating the governing coalition and in determining whether there is any serious attempt to secure opposition support.
Taddei herself was selected by lottery in 2023. Now Morena and its allies have the qualified majority required for an appointment, provided the governing parties agree among themselves. The main uncertainty may therefore lie less in negotiations with the opposition than in negotiations within Morena and its coalition partners.
The competing interests within Morena
Sheinbaum’s presidency has at least some interest in restoring confidence in the INE before a difficult electoral year. She supported Taddei’s resignation, called for the allegations to be investigated and argued that there should be no doubts about corruption at the institution. A technically competent, relatively uncontroversial successor would help achieve that objective. Sheinbaum could thus distance herself from some of the errors of the previous administration, and corruption allegations in general.
But the presidency must weigh the reputational benefits of institutional independence against the political advantages of a reliable pro Morena appointment which proved vital back in 2024. The INE under Taddei then awarded Morena and its allies a qualified majority in Congress, despite opposition objections over how seats allocated through proportional representation were distributed among the coalition parties. The controversy centred on ambiguous rules limiting over-representation, which the INE interpreted in a way that allowed the governing coalition to secure a two-thirds majority.
López Obrador might still want a say. Taddei’s selection in 2023 was part of his then governing movement’s effort to control in practice the INE. Morena’s Sonora governor Alfonso Durazo and AMLO ally was her political sponsor, while other senior Morena figures in the dominant AMLO faction of Morena were said to be close. They may not want to give up that leverage, even if the allegations of her corruption have weakened their hand, and damaged their moral authority. Back in 2023 AMLO said of her “She is professional and honest, incapable of behaving like the outgoing president. She is a woman of integrity.’’
The congressional leadership, particularly Monreal, is another factor. It must manage Morena’s preferences, those of its Green Party and Labour Party allies, and the procedural requirements for an appointment.
The outcome may therefore reflect a compromise within the governing coalition rather than a direct choice between a Sheinbaum candidate and a López Obrador candidate. For now, no credible shortlist for the permanent presidency has emerged.
The governing party’s record offers reasons for scepticism. Its approach to judicial reform, appointments to autonomous institutions and the restructuring of regulatory bodies has generally favoured greater political influence over institutions previously insulated from the executive. For now there is little reason to assume the INE succession will be much different.
The larger question: who controls the INE?
The succession also raises questions about the concentration of power within the institution. In October 2024, Congress changed Article 45 of the electoral law, allowing the INE president to appoint executive directors and heads of technical units directly. Previously, these appointments required approval by the General Council.
The change gave the presidency much greater control over the institution’s senior management. Taddei used those powers to appoint officials across the INE’s executive and technical departments. Reporting on the subsequent procurement controversy has raised questions about relationships among some officials, outside suppliers and the president’s office.
The allegations remain under investigation. But the governance issue exists independently of whether wrongdoing is established. The INE was designed around collective decision-making, with an eleven-member General Council providing checks on the presidency. Allowing one individual to control much of the senior management structure changes that balance.
The new president will inherit a leadership team substantially shaped by Taddei. Decisions about whether to retain or replace senior officials could prove as consequential as the appointment itself. A wholesale purge would risk disrupting preparations for the 2027 elections. Automatic continuity, however, could leave unresolved questions about management, procurement and oversight.
What it means for business
Three issues deserve attention.
First, the electoral calendar. The INE has already begun preparations for the June 2027 elections. Its professional electoral service provides considerable continuity regardless of changes at the top. There is no confirmed alteration to the timetable.
The immediate operational challenge will be maintaining decisions on budgets, electoral materials, logistics and technology while the institution undergoes a leadership transition.
Second, procurement and financial controls. The Auditoría Superior de la Federación is examining possible irregularities in contracts awarded during Taddei’s presidency, including alleged conflicts of interest and supplier collusion.
Companies supplying electoral technology, materials and services could face greater scrutiny. Additional controls may be desirable, although they could complicate procurement at a time when the INE faces tight deadlines.
Third, institutional confidence. Investors do not generally make decisions about Mexico based on the identity of the INE president. But the credibility of the electoral system matters to the wider investment climate.
Modalidad 40, Now Available in a Smaller Size
The Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) has tightened the rules of its most coveted pension strategy without consulting Congress. A resolution of its Technical Council, approved on 10 October and published in the Diario Oficial de la Federación (DOF) on 21 October, took effect the following day. It temporarily changes the terms of entry to Modalidad 40, the scheme that lets former employees keep contributing voluntarily. New applicants, and anyone re-enrolling, may now contribute only on their last registered salary plus one Unidad de Medida y Actualización (UMA) at most. Until last week they could choose any salary up to the 25 UMA ceiling and backdate their enrolment. Both options have gone. Those enrolled before 22 October keep their terms until their contracted period ends.
The cap matters because of how pensions under the 1973 Social Security Law are calculated. For workers who began contributing before July 1997, the pension depends on age, total weeks of contributions and the average salary over the final 250 weeks (roughly five years). Contributing at the maximum salary in the run-up to retirement could raise the pension substantially, and financial advisers have built businesses around that arithmetic. Those with low final salaries had the most to gain and now stand to lose the most: Norma Angélica Chávez Cortés, a labour lawyer, estimates that new contributors could receive pensions up to 50 per cent lower than the old rules allowed.
The government’s case rests on fraud. The IMSS says it detected brokers charging to enrol people and alter their salary records, and specialists describe lenders that financed contributions in exchange for a share of the pension. On 22 October President Sheinbaum said the government had found fraud linked to access to high pensions and wanted to protect resources for legitimate ones. She has also said the change needs no congressional vote because it alters neither the spirit nor the content of the Social Security Law. Jorge Gaviño, the IMSS secretary general, maintains that the resolution does not breach the law.
The central legal question is whether the council has the authority to do this. Article 218 of the Social Security Law allows former workers to continue contributing on their previous salary or a higher one. Articles 65 and 66 of its implementing regulations expressly permit them to choose a higher salary, up to the statutory ceiling, and to backdate their enrolment under specified conditions. The resolution restricts both options without amending either the statute or the regulations.
Two principles long applied by Mexican courts bear on the answer. The first, reserva de ley, gives Congress the power to define the substance of a right: who holds it, on what terms and within what limits. The second, subordinación jerárquica, subordinates every administrative rule to the statute it implements, so a council resolution may set out how a law is applied but may not add conditions the legislature did not write. The law fixes the ceiling at 25 UMA. Tying new contributors to their last salary introduces a limit the statute does not contain.
The fraud rationale has a weakness of its own. Anti-fraud measures usually target the fraudulent act, such as a simulated employment record or a falsified salary history. The cap instead applies to every new applicant, including those with legitimate histories, which could invite a proportionality challenge. Sheinbaum’s own reference to protecting resources makes necessity harder to establish, since a cap that also saves money is not obviously the least restrictive response to fraud.
The Auditoría Superior de la Federación (ASF) review of 2024 illustrates the distinction. Of the 89,000 enrolments that year, 64 per cent chose the maximum salary then permitted, MXN2,714 a day, as the law allowed. The clear irregularities were of another kind: shell companies giving people nearing 60 a few months of formal employment, insured persons recorded as aged 8 and 113, and 399 enrolments or re-entries granted to people who did not qualify. Pedro Vásquez Colmenares, a pensions specialist, argues that the new rules penalise future contributors who have done nothing wrong while leaving possibly fraudulent pensions in force. He would instead pursue criminal complaints, act against complicit officials and reform the law.
The government’s strongest argument is fiscal. Pensions under the 1973 regime are paid from federal funds, and by the end of 2024 the IMSS had granted 91,083 pensions to scheme users, 98 per cent calculated on an average daily salary of MXN1,967 (roughly MXN59,000 a month). Some analysts add that the resolution is only an operational pause pending an actuarial review: the finance directorate has up to six months to assess the scheme, and the legal directorate a further six to propose changes. But the restriction applies now and the evidence comes later. A rule that limits a statutory right while the institute works out whether it can afford that right still limits it, whatever the resolution calls itself.
The challenges will also test the reformed amparo regime. Former circuit judge María Emilia Molina says those affected can still bring indirect amparo claims despite recent changes to the Amparo Law, although other former judges warn that the new judiciary may dismiss them.
Freeze First, Argue Later
The Suprema Corte de Justicia de la Nación (SCJN) has ruled that creditors in commercial disputes may have a debtor’s bank accounts frozen and assets retained without a prior hearing. Resolving amparo en revisión 214/2026 on 20 October, the full Court upheld the Commercial Code provisions that allow it, finding that they contain enough safeguards against arbitrary decisions. Under Article 1168(II), the ‘well-founded fear’ (temor fundado) that justifies the measure must rest on objective, reviewable reasons rather than mere suspicion. Under Article 1175(V), the applicant must post a guarantee against any damage or loss the measure causes, and the judge must give reasons for its amount and set it proportionately.
The Court reasoned that the precautionary nature of the measure justifies dispensing with a hearing, since warning the debtor could defeat its purpose. The affected party can still defend itself afterwards, and the law gives it ways to challenge, modify, revoke or lift the measure.
The ruling goes furthest on money. The Court held that presuming a risk of dissipation for cash, bank deposits and other fungible goods is not arbitrary, given how easily such assets can be moved. The presumption does not remove the other requirements for granting the measure, chief among them proof of a liquid and enforceable debt.
The facts are those of a structured-finance dispute gone sour. Six foreign creditors, who claim more than MXN4.75 billion, had made several loans secured through trusts, with repayments channelled into a master trust. From late 2024 those payments fell sharply. The creditors allege the money was diverted to Contratos y Servicios PF, the lender to workers and pensioners known as Préstamo Feliz, and the shortfall triggered acceleration of the loans. A judge then ordered the retention of the company’s assets. The company sought an amparo, challenging both the measure itself and the rules behind it, which it argued violated its rights to a hearing and to legal certainty. A district judge granted the amparo on two grounds: no liquid and enforceable debt had been established, and there was no direct legal link between the creditors and the company.
The Court addressed only the constitutional question. It denied the amparo against the statutory provisions and returned the case to the collegiate circuit court, which must resolve the outstanding questions of legality, including whether the requirements for the retention were met. Préstamo Feliz may yet win on the facts, but it has lost the argument that the rules themselves are unconstitutional.
For lenders, particularly those whose repayments flow through trusts, the ruling gives greater certainty that precautionary measures will be available. The presumption that cash and other fungible assets are easily dissipated helps creditors show they risk losing access to them, although the other statutory requirements still apply. Nor does the decision authorise freezing third parties’ own assets. The SCJN held in 2024 that the Code allows measures against a debtor’s partners, administrators and guardians only in that capacity, not against their personal property. Borrowers and affected counterparties face a different concern. Their chance to contest a freeze may come only after it has disrupted their operations, and a guarantee may not fully offset the commercial damage. The open question is how rigorously lower courts will test the evidence for both the underlying claim and the retention of particular assets.
The Antitrust Commission Looks Inside the Grocery Voucher
The Comisión Nacional Antimonopolio (CNA) has disclosed that it is investigating possible relative monopolistic practices n the acceptance of grocery vouchers and electronic payment instruments by retailers nationwide. The notice was published in the Diario Oficial de la Federación (DOF) on 22 October under file DE-014-2026, although the investigation opened on 11 June following a complaint. No companies are named.
Grocery vouchers are received by over 10 million Mexican workers, according to ASEVAL. (Photo: Publimetro)
The inquiry focuses on the conditions retailers set for accepting these instruments. The CNA’s investigating authority will examine whether companies with substantial market power have used unlawful exclusivity contracts, price discrimination or other barriers to shut out competitors. It has not yet specified the conduct or identified those potentially responsible. According to the Asociación de Sociedades Emisoras de Vales (ASEVAL), more than 10 million workers receive grocery vouchers, benefiting nearly 40 million people once their families are counted.
The structure of the market explains why acceptance matters. Issuers sell to employers but need merchants to accept their cards. Employers favour vouchers partly for their tax treatment, subject to statutory requirements, while employees care mostly about where they can spend them. Spending is also concentrated: ASEVAL says about 80 per cent of vouchers are redeemed in supermarkets and pharmacies. A large retail chain that accepts only certain issuers could therefore sway which ones employers choose, and exclusive acceptance arrangements could disadvantage rival issuers. Whether any such restrictions exist, and whether they are unlawful, has yet to be established.
The investigation runs for an initial period of 30 to 120 business days, which can be extended up to three times by 120 business days each, for a maximum of 480. The 2025 reform that created the CNA cut the number of extensions from four. Anyone with relevant information may submit it. The notice came more than four months after the investigation began, and the CNA has not said what evidence it has gathered or how far the inquiry has progressed.
Companies that receive information requests should also note a ruling issued two days before the notice. On 20 October the Suprema Corte de Justicia de la Nación (SCJN) upheld provisions allowing the former Comisión Federal de Competencia Económica (COFECE) to impose coercive fines on those who fail to comply with its orders. The case was brought by a company fined for not answering an information request. The Court held that such fines are distinct from administrative sanctions: they aim to overcome non-compliance rather than to punish, so they need not meet the strict standard of precision that applies to criminal law. It also held that the fine is calculated on the Unidad de Medida y Actualización (UMA) value in force when the order is breached, which stops the authority from choosing the value at some other date. Obstructing or delaying proceedings also counts as non-compliance. The CNA inherited COFECE’s powers when it began operating in October 2025, and the reform that created it strengthened those coercive measures, so the ruling’s reasoning is likely to carry over.
Chatter Box
Protesting truckers have caused extensive traffic and delays on national highways. (Photo: La Jornada)
Truckers stoppage clogs highways
The National Freight Transport Chamber (Canacar) and two allied groups have launched an indefinite national stoppage from Monday 26 October, demanding President Sheinbaum’s direct intervention on highway insecurity, extortion, operating costs and proposed fiscal changes. By mid-morning the interior ministry had counted 38 protest points in 19 states; the organisers claimed a presence in all 32.
The government has put the tax grievance at the centre. Haulage firms can deduct tolls in full from income and also credit up to 50 per cent of them against income tax. The 2027 revenue bill lowers the annual revenue ceiling for that credit from MXN300 million to MXN250 million, raising an extra MXN4.5 billion. Finance secretary Édgar Amador said 170 of the 2,580 beneficiary firms would lose the stimulus, worth an average of MXN26 million each, while 94 per cent, including owner-drivers, would keep it.
Sheinbaum called the toll change the protest’s main cause. The interior and finance secretaries then met other transport organisations, which rejected the blockades and agreed a work agenda. The strikers stayed away, demanding decisions at the highest level. The firms losing the stimulus are the sector’s largest, which helps explain why an employers’ chamber, rather than owner-drivers, is leading the stoppage. The strikers reject that reading, citing extortion, theft and killings on the highways, and say commitments made by the interior ministry since February 2024 have yet to produce results. The Senate votes on the revenue law on Tuesday, so the negotiating window is short.
Congress: the Senate votes, the Chamber waits
The Senate has given first reading to the revenue side of the 2027 economic package: the federal revenue law and reforms to the income tax and federal duties laws. The joint committees approved all three bills by 18 votes to 11, unchanged from the versions passed by the Chamber of Deputies, with the opposition voting against. The floor vote is scheduled for Tuesday 27 October, ahead of the statutory deadline of 31 October. The committee versions left intact the caps on deductions for companies with annual revenue above MXN50 million. The Consejo Coordinador Empresarial (CCE) is still negotiating with the tax authorities and hopes the Senate will amend them. Any change on the floor would send the bills back to the Chamber, and the hauliers’ toll stimulus has now added a second lobby to the same vote.
The budget comes next. The Chamber’s Comisión de Presupuesto y Cuenta Pública is due to approve its report on the 2027 spending bill by 5 November, with floor debate scheduled for 9 to 13 November, ahead of the constitutional deadline of 15 November. Ricardo Monreal, who chairs the Chamber’s Junta de Coordinación Política (Jucopo), said the budget debate would not begin until the Senate had approved the revenue, income tax and duties laws.
Jalisco makes changes as water plan heads to Palacio Nacional
Salvador Zamora has resigned as Jalisco’s secretary general of government to take on political work ahead of the 2027 elections. His resignation took effect immediately on Sunday 25 October, ending a tenure that began in December 2024. Governor Pablo Lemus of Movimiento Ciudadano (MC) accepted it and appointed Carlos Arias Madrid, until then head of the state tax service. Arias Madrid is a lawyer with master’s degrees in public, electoral and corporate law. He was previously technical secretary of the Senate’s Comisión de Reforma del Estado and a senior official at the Consejo de la Judicatura del Estado de Jalisco.
Arias Madrid takes over as the state’s water talks with the federal government come to a head. Protests over contaminated water reaching homes in the Guadalajara metropolitan area began on 11 October, and some ended in clashes with police. The Comisión Nacional de los Derechos Humanos (CNDH) is investigating alleged abuses. On 21 October President Claudia Sheinbaum and Lemus outlined a cost-sharing scheme for new water infrastructure, with the federal government contributing MXN12 billion to MXN13 billion and the state MXN10 billion to MXN12 billion. Lemus has ruled out privatisation and borrowing. On Wednesday the two will present a comprehensive water project for the metropolitan area.
Contact:
Laura Camacho
Executive Director Miranda Public Affairs