MARKETS
The S&P / BMV IPC was down 4.2% over the week amid rising oil prices and global risk aversion triggered by the US/Iran war. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso weakened 3.1% to close at MXN$17.72/USD; the yield of the 10-year M-Bono was up 34 bps to 9.00%.
The S&P / BMV IPC’s top weekly gainers were: LIVEPOL C1 (+2.6%), BOLSA A (+2.2%), and GRUMA B (+1.1%). On the other hand, the main weekly losers were: ORBIA * (-11.5%), PEÑOLES * (-10.6%) and TLEVISA CPO (-8.8%).
LISTED COMPANIES
Peñoles and its London listed silver subsidiary Fresnillo both delivered strong 4Q25 results, largely driven by last year’s rally in precious metals prices, especially silver and gold. Peñoles posted a 48.0% YoY increase in revenues and an 85.7% rise in EBITDA, with margin expanding to 43.5%, as higher realized prices and a better sales mix more than offset mixed production trends. Net profit surged 478.7% YoY. Fresnillo also benefited from the stronger price environment: revenues rose 30.5% YoY, EBITDA increased 80.7%, and EBITDA margin improved to 61.3% from 44.3%, while net profit jumped 594.2% YoY. In both cases, higher silver and gold prices were the main driver, outweighing lower production volumes in several operations caused by weaker ore grades, lower processed volumes, and mine-specific disruptions. On costs, Fresnillo also benefited from peso depreciation, operational efficiencies, and the shutdown of higher-cost activity at San Julián DOB. Despite these strong earnings, sentiment weakened over the past week as silver prices corrected sharply and investors took profits. Peñoles shares fell 10.6% during the week, reflecting the recent slide in silver after a very strong run. Looking ahead, Fresnillo expects to pay a record US$950 million dividend and guides for 2026 silver production of 42.0–46.5 moz and gold production of 500–550 koz, implying somewhat lower volumes due to geological factors. Capex is projected at around US$765 million, focused on mine development and optimization projects, including the Jarillas shaft at Saucito and infrastructure improvements at Herradura.
Fibra Prologis has received authorization from the National Antitrust Commission to launch a tender offer for up to 100% of Fibra Macquarie’s certificates.
Grupo Salinas made a MXN$10.4 billion payment to the fiscal authorities which included MXN$6.5 billion owed by Grupo Elektra and MXN$3.9 billion owed by TV Azteca.
Grupo Televisa is using AI to produce micro-novelas, a new format it aims to expand by 2026 as part of a more disciplined approach to content investment. TelevisaUnivision launched this format in 2025 with 40 series and aims to reach 100 by 2026, as part of a more disciplined financial strategy for content production.
Asur’s total passenger traffic grew 1.6% YoY to 5.7 million in February as a result of the increases of 4.7% in Colombia, 2.1% in Puerto Rico and 1.6% in Mexico.
Alpek’s shareholders approved a MXN$1 billion share buyback reserve for 2026, which represents a 50% reduction against the amount approved in 2025. This amount represents 5.7% of the company’s current market capitalization.
Nemak’s shareholders approved a MXN$1 billion share buyback reserve for 2026. This amount represents 10.4% of the company’s current market capitalization.
Grupo Financiero Banorte has relocated its central data center from Mexico City to Querétaro with the aim of reducing risks associated with natural disasters and strengthening its digital infrastructure.
BBVA Mexico, Banorte, HSBC Mexico, Banco Santander Mexico and Scotiabank Inverlat have concluded the sale of their respective equity stakes in Trans Union de Mexico to Transunion Reverse Exchange. The transaction was originally signed on January 15th, 2025.
Kimberly-Clark de México issued MXN$10 billion in domestic bonds (“Certificados Bursátiles”) in two tranches: i) MXN$8 billion in 12-year KIMBER 26 domestic bonds carrying a 9.45% fixed interest rate (Mbono+0.42%) with equal amortizations in years 10, 11 and 12; and ii) MXN$2.0 billion in 2.6 year KIMBER 26-2 domestic bonds carrying a floating interest rate of TIIE de Fondeo + 37-bps. Both offerings received a credit rating of mxAAA from S&P Global Ratings S.A. de C.V. and of AAA(mex) by Fitch México S.A. de C.V. The company will use proceeds for general corporate purposes.
Grupo Peña Verde’s CEO, Pedro Miguel Escobedo Conover, reduced his equity stake in the company by 6.94% to 6.31% in two transactions that took place in November 2025 and March 2026. On March 3rd, Grupo Peña Verde also announced its intention to repurchase in a single trading session up to 2.93% of outstanding shares, at a price of MXN$8.50/ share.
FibraShop prepaid MXN$390 million of the syndicated revolving credit facility. After this prepayment, this credit facility’s undrawn balance amounts to MXN$1.52 billion. Prior to this transaction, the outstanding balance of the revolving facility with BBVA amounted to MXN$470 million. After the prepayment, the outstanding balance was reduced to MXN$80 million.
KOF’s Board of Directors has proposed a MXN$0.9675/share (MXN$7.74/UBL unit) ordinary dividend to be paid in four equal installments of MXN0.241875/share (MXN$1.935/UBL unit), in April, July, October, and December of 2026. The dividend yield is 4.1% against the current market price.
OTHER COMPANIES
Pemex and Woodside Energy initiated activities in the Trión oil field. They plan to invest US$10.4 billion including equity and operating expenses.
Sanofi Mexico plans to invest MXN$14.0 billion through 2030 to strengthen production and its local supply chain.
Argentinian Fintech Ualá raised US$195 million in a financing round led by AllianzX, Grupo Allianz’s strategic investment arm, which valued the Fintech at US$3.2 million. Participating investors included Stone Ridge Holdings Group, Tencent, TABLE Holdings, L.P., Soros Fund Management and D1 Capital Partners. Ualá will use proceeds to accelerate growth and expand its operations in Latin America.
Sempra has terminated its agreement to develop the Vista Pacífico liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Sinaloa due to changes in strategic priorities. The project was a partnership between Sempra Infrastructure Partners (SI Partners), the CFE, KKR and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.
Anytime Fitness plans to open 40 gyms in Mexico in 2026 to reach 150 units.
Wendy’s Company plans to open more than 60 new locations in Mexico in partnership with two local franchisees. The plans include 50 new stores in Mexico City, Hidalgo, and Morelos in association with AJ Group, and the development of 12 restaurants in Sinaloa and Durango with WS Pacific.
ECONOMIC
Private consumption increased 1.2% MoM (seasonally adjusted) in December, reversing the monthly fall of the previous month, according to INEGI. Demand for imported goods and services rose 4.9% while demand for local goods and services grew 0.1%. Private consumption was up a surprising 6.8% YoY based on original data, boosted by a 30.0% jump in imported goods and a 2.7% increase in domestic goods.
Gross fixed investment increased 0.5% MoM (seasonally adjusted) in December, according to INEGI. This was the third month in a row with a positive monthly performance. The main driver was a 0.9% rise in construction levels which was partially offset by a 0.3% reduction in machinery and equipment. Nevertheless, gross fixed investment was flat YoY (original data), with construction up 4.3% and machinery and equipment falling 4.3%.
The consumer confidence index increased 0.3 pts MoM to 44.4 points, mainly driven by the country’s current and expected economic situation components. Nevertheless, the Consumer Confidence Index declined 2.2 pts YoY dragged down by the same components.
Remittances fell by 1.4% YoY to US$4.59 billion in January, according to Banco de México. This was the ninth annual fall in the last 10 months.
The business confidence index was up 0.7 points to 48.8 in February, according to INEGI.
Light vehicle sales fell by 0.3% YoY to 118,297 units in February, according to INEGI. This was the first fall for a similar month in the last four years. However, cumulative light vehicle sales for the first two months of the year increased 4.4% to 250,076 units.
Public revenues grew by 10.2% YoY in January, according to Hacienda. Fiscal revenues rose by 11.5% (VAT +1.8%, Income taxes +14.4% and IEPS +14.4%), while oil revenues advanced 11.8%. Total spending rose 8.8% and the Historical Balance of the Public Sector’s Financial Requirements stood at 49.6% of GDP.
The Federal Government announced a MXN$150 billion investment program to develop and modernize road infrastructure through mixed investment schemes with the private sector. The program includes 18 highway projects covering around 1,450 kilometers of highways and roads across 11 states. These investments are expected to generate around 177 thousand direct jobs and more than 140 thousand indirect jobs.
CETES auction: 27-day CETES -2 bps to 6.81%; 91-day CETES +5 bps to 7.10%; 182-day CETES +6 bps to 7.11% and 364-day CETES -1 bps to 7.21%.
Download PDF: Mexican Market Chatter 26 de febrero – 5 de marzo