By Fausto Carbajal Glass, Partner, Miranda Delphi Solutions
This compilation reveals multifaceted tensions in Mexico-U.S. relations centered on security, drug trafficking, and border management. The Trump administration presents contradictory narratives –praising Mexico’s border control while making veiled threats. The security landscape shows sophisticated evolution of Mexican cartels in underserved regions, with potential realignments between major criminal organizations threatening further destabilization. The transnational nature of criminal enterprises is evident in the Jensen family case, highlighting how U.S. businesses facilitate cartel operations through fuel theft. Meanwhile, diplomatic friction continues over alleged unauthorized US operations in Mexico, and the Cuauhtémoc accident represents another layer of current complexities in the bilateral relationship.
“Mexico helped seal the border; fentanyl comes from Canada”: FBI.
FBI Director Kash Patel commended Mexico for helping “seal” the U.S. southern border while suggesting Canada should follow suit, noting that most apprehended terrorism suspects now enter from the north. “Say what you want about Mexico, but they helped seal the southern border. The facts speak for themselves”, Patel stated on Fox News. He highlighted that border crossings have decreased under Trump’s administration and questioned where fentanyl now originates: “Where is all the fentanyl coming from? The northern border”. While Trump imposed 25% tariffs on both countries for alleged insufficient action against drug trafficking, Patel indicated the cooperation levels differ significantly. Patel revealed that of 100 known or suspected terrorists crossing illegally this year, 64 entered from the south, while last year 85% of 300 such individuals came through Canada.
Milenio, 5/19/25, Diego Salcedo: “México ayudó a sellar la frontera; el fentanilo viene de Canadá”: FBI.
Regions identified in the country where crime governs.
Federal government analysis reveals Mexican criminal organizations have evolved beyond traditional drug trafficking operations into sophisticated political and economic actors that effectively challenge state authority. In territories with minimal or compromised official presence, cartels function as state substitutes, providing employment, security, and justice systems –particularly in rural and border regions. Despite official narratives of cartel dismantling, these criminal structures demonstrate remarkable regenerative capacity and adaptability. The Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels now operate through flexible networks specializing in production, transportation, and distribution while diversifying into illegal mining, human trafficking, and business extortion. The 2025-2030 security strategy recognizes crime’s multidimensional nature but struggles to transform structural conditions enabling criminal reproduction. Without legitimate local institutions, effective territorial control, and targeted anti-corruption policies, authorities merely manage violence rather than resolving it.
El Universal, 5/19/25, Manuel Espino: Ubican zonas del país en las que el crimen gobierna.
Fuel theft, the U.S. connection with Mexican cartels.
Federal authorities have arrested members of the Jensen family in Utah and Texas for allegedly smuggling over $300 million worth of crude oil through 2,881 separate shipments in collaboration with Mexican drug cartels. James Jensen, his wife Kelly, and their sons Maxwell and Zachary stand accused of laundering proceeds from illegal oil imports through their company, Arroyo Terminals. According to court documents, the operation involved transporting stolen Mexican petroleum across the southwestern border, frequently mislabeled as waste oil to evade inspections and taxes. The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) recently warned U.S. banks about these schemes, noting that Mexican authorities report billions in revenue losses from “huachicol” (fuel theft).
FinCEN specifically identified the Jalisco New Generation, Sinaloa, and Gulf cartels as primary perpetrators, stating that U.S. importers can earn over $5 million per shipment. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterized fuel theft as a lucrative revenue source fueling cartel operations across both nations.
La Jornada, 5/19/25, Jim Cason y David Brooks: Huachicol, conexión de EU con los cárteles mexicanos.
DEA warns of a probable alliance between Jalisco Cartel and “Chapitos”, which would escalate drug and weapons trafficking.
The U.S. government under Trump’s administration fears a potential alliance between two former enemies: the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and Los Chapitos, a faction of the Sinaloa Cartel. According to the DEA’s “National Drug Threat Assessment 2025”, this alliance could significantly disrupt Mexico’s criminal power balance and increase drug flow northward. The alliance emerges amid violent conflict between Sinaloa Cartel factions following the July arrest of Jesús “El Mayo” Zambada, which split the organization into the “Chapitos” and “Mayiza” groups. Despite leadership arrests, the DEA considers the Sinaloa Cartel among the world’s most powerful, operating in 40+ countries and throughout the U.S. Meanwhile, CJNG maintains significant presence across all Mexican states and nearly all U.S. states.
Both cartels have diversified beyond drug trafficking into money laundering, extortion, fuel theft, human trafficking, and natural resource exploitation, making them increasingly resilient organizations.
Animal Político, 5/17/25, Manu Ureste: La DEA advierte sobre una probable alianza entre Cártel Jalisco y Chapitos, que dispararía tráfico de drogas y armas.
Veiled threats take over Mexico-U.S. security relationship.
Tensions between Mexico and the United States have escalated since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January, with bilateral security negotiations focused on combating fentanyl trafficking. The latest controversy erupted when ICE announced the dismantling of three synthetic drug laboratories in Sinaloa, posting images of uniformed agents that some Mexican media interpreted as evidence of U.S. officers operating on Mexican soil. President Claudia Sheinbaum questioned the authenticity of the photographs, while the Mexican Attorney General’s Office has remained silent on the matter. This incident follows other contentious developments, including the transfer of 17 relatives of alleged drug trafficker Ovidio Guzmán to the U.S. without proper notification to Mexican authorities. Despite Mexico’s commitment with numerous U.S. demands –permitting intelligence operations, extraditing dozens of prisoners, and achieving record drug seizures– the Trump administration’s response remains condescending and unsatisfied.
El País, 5/15/25, Pablo Ferri: Las amenazas veladas se apoderan de la relación entre México y EE UU en materia de seguridad.
Training vessel Cuauhtémoc made three distress calls before collision; U.S. expects to issue preliminary report in 30 days.
The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) announced Monday that a preliminary report on the Mexican Navy training vessel Cuauhtémoc’s collision with Brooklyn Bridge could be ready within 30 days. The accident, which occurred Saturday evening, resulted in two deaths and 19 injuries, including two critical cases. Investigators revealed that the ship made three distress calls just four minutes after departure. At 8:24:45 PM, the vessel struck the bridge’s underside. NTSB member Michael Graham stated they are still gathering information and haven’t interviewed the crew, pending Mexican authorization to access the ship. Before the collision, the Cuauhtémoc unexpectedly turned north instead of heading south toward open water. New York Mayor Eric Adams indicated the vessel lost power before impact. Of the 277 people aboard, 172 cadets and officers have returned to Veracruz, Mexico, while two cadets remain hospitalized in stable condition in New York.
Animal Político, 5/19/25, Redacción: Buque escuela Cuauhtémoc realizó tres llamadas de ayuda antes del choque; EU prevé emitir informe preliminar en 30 días.
If you would like to talk to Fausto about our services in risk and security consulting, please email him at fausto.carbajal@miranda-partners.com
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