By Fausto Carbajal, Partner, Miranda Delphi Solutions
Government’s security strategy disrupts majority of Mexican cartels
Mexico’s national security strategy, led by Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch, has significantly disrupted organized crime groups through coordinated efforts with military, naval, and national guard forces. In less than two months, the approach has delivered strategic blows to major criminal organizations including the Sinaloa Cartel, CJNG, and several regional gangs. Key achievements include multiple high-profile arrests: Edwin Antonio (Sinaloa Cartel), Omar Félix (Los Chapitos), and Zhi Dong, a Chinese national accused of coordinating global drug shipments. Other significant operations targeted leaders from Los Ardillos, Guerreros Unidos, and La Familia Michoacana across various Mexican states. The comprehensive strategy has not only focused on capturing key leaders but also achieved major drug seizures. In just 39 days, authorities secured 42 tons of drugs, including over 20 tons of cocaine and 390,740 fentanyl pills. These operations have directly impacted criminal organizations’ financial structures and operational capabilities. The approach demonstrates a coordinated, intelligence-driven effort to systematically dismantle organized crime networks in Mexico.
Source: Milenio
‘A soft invasion of Mexico’: Trump’s proposal to combat drug cartels.
Donald Trump’s plans for a possible “soft invasion” of Mexico, according to a Rolling Stone article. His team is considering military strategies against drug cartels, including: drone attacks, covert special forces operations, aerial attacks on cartel infrastructure, deployment of military advisors, cyber warfare against criminal networks, and raids and kidnappings of cartel leaders. The president-elect warned that if Mexico does not stop the flow of fentanyl, he could send US troops. Members of his future cabinet, such as Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, support military intervention, conditioning it on cooperation from the Mexican government. Waltz even presented a law to authorize the use of sophisticated military resources against cartels, while Lindsey Graham proposed designating them as foreign terrorist organizations.
Source: Rolling Stone
Mexican President calls for respect from North American partners, anticipates meeting with Trump ‘soon’
President Sheinbaum demanded respect from the United States and Canada, announcing her intention to meet “soon” with President-elect Trump, though no date has been set. Her statement came after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with Trump and suggested Canada differs from Mexico in its relationship with the US. Sheinbaum expressed surprise about Trudeau’s comments and urged Canada not to use Mexico for electoral purposes. Both countries are concerned about Trump’s threat to impose 25% tariffs. During their call, Sheinbaum and Trump discussed security cooperation, emphasizing intelligence sharing while respecting each country’s sovereignty. A key point of contention is fentanyl production. While Mexico remains a major producer of the synthetic opioid, which generates significant revenues for cartels, Sheinbaum downplayed concerns, even dismissing a New York Times investigation about cartels recruiting chemistry students to manufacture the drug. The Mexican president firmly rejected any potential US military intervention, stating that troops would never be allowed to enter Mexico to fight cartels. Trump’s suggestion of such intervention during his campaign remains off the table. Despite tensions, both leaders expressed optimism about avoiding a tariff war and maintaining diplomatic relations.
Source: LA Times
Trump’s tariff threats create division between Canada and Mexico over security at borders
US President-elect Trump’s threats of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico have exposed tensions between the two countries, particularly regarding border security and drug trafficking. Canadian officials suggested their border is significantly different from Mexico’s, which prompted a strong response from Mexican President Sheinbaum, who demanded respect for Mexico. The statistics starkly highlight the differences: US customs seized 43 pounds of fentanyl at the Canadian border, compared to 21,100 pounds at the Mexican border. Border Patrol made 56,530 arrests at the Mexican border in October alone, compared to only 23,721 at the Canadian border between October 2023 and September 2024. Sheinbaum revealed she discussed intelligence sharing with Trump, who apparently agreed with her approach. However, she firmly stated Mexico would reject any direct U.S. intervention and maintain strict limitations on U.S. law enforcement operations within Mexican territory. Canada claims readiness to invest in border security, including more helicopters, drones, and law enforcement personnel. Mexico feels particularly aggrieved, noting they previously supported Canada during trade negotiations with Trump.
Source: ABC News
New migrant caravan departs Southern Mexico, aiming to reach US before Trump’s inauguration
A new migrant caravan departed from southern Mexico towards the United States, hoping to arrive before Donald Trump assumes the presidency. Primarily composed of Venezuelans and Cuban migrants, the group left Tapachula, Chiapas. Migrants are rushing to enter the US before Trump’s anticipated strict immigration policies, which include declaring a state of emergency and launching a massive deportation operation. Trump views the massive entry of undocumented migrants as an “invasion” and threatens to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican imports if it fails to reduce undocumented immigration. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum discussed migration strategies with Trump, claiming that caravans are no longer reaching the border due to Mexican authorities’ actions. As immigration policies tighten, migrants are increasingly attempting to enter the US through the CBP One app to formally request asylum. Official US data shows a significant decline in undocumented migrant encounters from 250,000 in December 2023 to 54,000 in September in 2024.
Source: El Economista
Attorney General’s Office and Navy seize 290 kgs of meth bound for Cameroon and the Dominican Republic
The Attorney General’s Office (FGR) and the Navy conducted two important drug seizures at the Port of Veracruz. In the first operation, they seized 290 kilos of methamphetamine hidden in 3,840 rolls of plastic film, intended for export to Cameroon from Jalisco. The drugs were discovered during an inspection by Customs officials. A week later, in another joint operation, they seized 722 kilos and 719 grams of marijuana, hidden in furniture. This shipment was destined for export to the Dominican Republic from Yucatan. Carlos Ignacio Velázquez Tiscareño, director of the Port of Veracruz, highlighted the increase in these seizures, attributing them to improvements in security and coordination between Customs, the Navy, and the Port Protection Unit. He noted that most of the seized shipments this year were bound for the Dominican Republic.
Source: Proceso
World at most dangerous point in 40 years, MI6 chief warns
Sir Richard Moore, head of MI6, has warned that the world is at its most dangerous point in 40 years, highlighting unprecedented global tensions. He specifically criticized Russia’s “staggeringly reckless” sabotage campaign in Europe and the potential consequences of Putin’s actions in Ukraine. Moore emphasized that if Putin succeeds in Ukraine, the consequences would be far-reaching: China would assess the implications, North Korea would become emboldened, and Iran would become more dangerous. He stressed that the cost of supporting Ukraine is “well known”, but the cost of inaction would be “infinitely higher”. The intelligence chief revealed that Russian spies have been planning attacks across Europe, including alleged plots to burn Ukrainian-owned businesses in London and plant incendiary devices on cargo planes. His concerns are shared by Ken McCallum of MI5, who warned of Russian attempts to create mayhem on European streets.
Regarding potential geopolitical shifts, Moore addressed the incoming Trump administration, expressing confidence in the US-UK intelligence alliance. He acknowledged Trump’s previous calls for increased NATO defense spending, noting that the British government has committed to spending 2.5% of GDP on defense. Moore also highlighted the potential long-term consequences of the Gaza conflict, warning of a potential “reckoning” as the war may radicalize potential terrorists. The conflict has resulted in over 44,000 Palestinian casualties, approximately 1,200 Israeli deaths, and 250 hostages taken.
Source: The Independent
If you would like to talk to Fausto about our services in risk and security consulting, please email him at fausto.carbajal@miranda-partners.com
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