MI’s Mexico Public Affairs Chatter – June 10, 2025

Diplomatic Headaches: US-MX Relationship Under LA protests

The protests that erupted in Los Angeles over the weekend against aggressive immigration raids could complicate the US/Mexico relationship. The White House has characterized ‘foreign nationals, waving foreign flags, rioting’ as ‘illegal foreign invaders’. Further escalating matters, President Trump sent 2,000 National Guard troops, followed by another 2,000 federal troops backed by 700 Marines. Gavin Newsom, the governor of California called the deployment “illegal” and filed a lawsuit; Trump replied by suggesting Newsom should be arrested.

Sheinbaum issued a sensible statement urging Mexicans in LA to stay calm and avoid provocation. But in a reflection of the tense atmosphere, her previous calls to protest the proposal for a tax on remittances have resurfaced online, and been taken out of context by some, to falsely imply she’s supporting the protests.

On remittances, Missouri U.S. Senator Eric Schmitt wants to hike the tax from 3.5% to 15%, in direct response to the protests.  While that amendment of a hike to 15% for sure will not be supported by the Majority Leader, it’s a clear reminder of how toxic the political climate has become and leading to irrational and counter-productive policy proposals.

The concern is that with the US economy faltering, and budget talks fracturing the Republican coalition in the Senate, Trump may focus on his strong card of success in fighting illegal immigration. And that puts the Mexican president in a tough spot, not wanting to alienate Trump with USMCA talks upcoming, but not able to condone attacks on Mexican nationals living in the US.

 

 

Judicial Experiment: Lessons From a Low-Turnout Lab Test

Mexico’s initial experiment with electing judges through direct popular vote is finishing. Yesterday, the vote tallies for the six judicial elections were formally completed in all 300 electoral districts, one day ahead of schedule. Today, the General Council of the National Electoral Institute (INE) will issue the official declaration.

In public the government is applauding the experiment as a milestone in democracy, and no doubt in private as a brilliantly executed strategy to take control of the judiciary. It argues – not unreasonably – that popular election of judges was a clear part of its electoral platform, and as it won the Presidential election by over a 30 percentage-point margin, it is carrying out the will of the people.

Meanwhile, with power more concentrated than ever in Morena’s hands, it will take a brave businessman or investor who openly challenges the government going forward. And even more in the past, there will be no shortage of opportunistic ones who openly back the government to curry favor.

Needless to say, many do not share the government’s optimistic view. The electoral delegates of the Organization of American States (OAS) stated that last Sunday’s election was an “extremely complex and polarizing” process with multiple “gaps.” The conclusion was that the model “should not be replicated” elsewhere in the region. President Sheinbaum replied that they should keep their opinions to themselves.

And as most individual businesses preferred to keep quiet for obvious reasons, it was left to organizations like Coparmex to echo similar concerns. Coparmex criticized the process as opaque and out of step with the actual needs of the justice system: judicial reform is essential, but not in this manner. A low-participation process, designed and executed in haste, risks weakening institutions rather than strengthening them.

The Mexican Senate is preparing the session in which all 881 elected officials—including the nine new justices of the Supreme Court— will be sworn in before Congress and formally take office. According to Senate President Gerardo Fernández Noroña, the ceremony will take place in the Senate chamber in the morning, just before the start of the regular legislative session in September.

 

 

Mexico’s Gas Distributors Sound the Alarm

LP gas distributors are running out of patience—and cash. Since October, the government has kept the distribution margin frozen at 2.54 pesos per liter, despite rising operational costs. According to Amexgas, which represents 80% of the sector, this math doesn’t work. Maintaining trucks, complying with regulations, and keeping workers on payroll require more than wishful thinking and public price caps. Over 2,000 workers have already been laid off. The industry is asking to raise the distribution margin to 4.25 pesos, which should be partly absorbed by Pemex, which, they claim, is charging extra for imported gas.

Amexgas has met with the Energy Ministry (Sener), but so far, no real progress has been achieved. With whispers of a national strike floating around, the stakes are climbing fast. Millions of households rely on LP gas for daily life—and nothing quite shakes public confidence like cold showers and idle kitchen ovens.

The government has stated it is “reviewing the pricing scheme,” a necessary step given the rising pressure. Meanwhile, distributors are running the numbers daily, trying to figure out how much longer they can operate under the current margin. Sooner or later, an adjustment will be unavoidable, they say.

 

 

Extraordinary Session? Morena Can’t Seem to Agree on the Basics

Mexico’s Congress is supposedly preparing for an extraordinary session. Inside Morena, coordination seems to be in short supply. Senator Fernández Noroña openly admitted that he doesn’t know if or when the session will happen. “I think we’ll get it done by the end of June, but I’m not sure,” he said, adding that recent events—especially with the U.S.—have created a volatile political climate.

Meanwhile, Ricardo Monreal, Morena’s majority leader in the lower house, appears more optimistic. He announced that President Sheinbaum will soon submit a comprehensive reform package for the National Guard, encompassing changes to nine laws related to the military and public security. Monreal says the session could happen “in about three weeks.”

 

Contact:

Laura Camacho

Executive Director Miranda Public Affairs

laura.camacho@miranda-partners.com

 

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