February Begins: Reform Blitz, Party Chess
February marks the formal start of the legislative calendar in Mexico, as Congress returns from recess for a session running through April. While this period typically brings a wave of legislative activity, things got underway early this year with the notable shift in leadership at Morena’s Senate caucus, which drew attention for its timing as much as for its content.
The resignation of Senator Adán Augusto López and the appointment of Ignacio Mier as his successor as Morena’s Senate majority leader, though anticipated to an extent, raised questions about whether it mainly reflects internal decisions by the current administration aimed at removing an AMLO loyalist mired in corruption scandals or broader political considerations linked to external pressures from the US – or more likely a bit of both.
Scrutiny from the United States on possible cartel links of politicians is increasing, and is thus thought to have played some role in the change. (As a reminder: Hernán Bermúdez Requena, the former Secretary of Security of Tabasco under López’s term as governor, was arrested last year on allegations that he led a criminal network known as “La Barredora.) Still, Mr. López isn’t entirely departing: he won’t be the leader anymore, but he retains his seat and the constitutional immunity that comes with it.
In public remarks, López described his transition as part of a broader electoral effort focused on territory-level work in the lead-up to 2027. His political ties with Mier, established through previous coordination on presidential and gubernatorial campaigns, suggest a degree of continuity in legislative strategy.
Within Morena, the leadership change may support greater cohesion in pursuing the party’s legislative priorities. Electoral reform has been identified as a central objective, alongside initiatives on anti-corruption, criminal justice, and labour. Ricardo Monreal, majority leader in the lower house, confirmed that proposals from the executive branch are expected soon, including reforms to anti-corruption laws and a constitutional amendment to reduce the workweek to 40 hours.
As the session begins, attention should also be paid to the recalibrating power dynamics within the majority bloc. With electoral reform on the agenda (an initiative that could have material impacts on Morena’s junior partners, the PVEM and PT), internal coordination takes on heightened strategic importance. What gets approved between now and April will carry weight well beyond the legislative arena, setting the tone for coalition viability going forward as we move into next year’s midterm elections.
Cuban Oil and Political Optics: Fuel, Pressure, and Historical Lines
Cuba once again became a friction point in the U.S.-Mexico relationship. Just hours after yet another phone call between President Sheinbaum and President Trump, hailed by both sides as positive and focused on the continuity of the USMCA, Trump publicly threatened tariff reprisals against countries that continue to support the Cuban regime. The timing was pointed. Asked by reporters whether Sheinbaum had been pressured, Trump said that he personally asked Sheinbaum to stop sending oil to Cuba and that she agreed to his request: “The president of Mexico, President Sheinbaum, was very good. I said, ‘Look, we don’t want you to send oil now.’ And she is not sending oil”, adding, “There doesn’t need to be a humanitarian crisis. They’ll come to us. Cuba will be free. They’ll make a deal.”
Directly contradicted and under threat of tariffs, Sheinbaum has relented, at least for now. Speaking from Hermosillo, she said her administration plans to send “food and other basic products” as a way to continue its humanitarian support, while “exploring all diplomatic options” to resume oil shipments. Whether that can happen before the lights finally go out on the island’s communist regime remains an open question.
The strategic and symbolic importance of Cuba can hardly be overstated. President López Obrador’s first Latin American trip was to Havana, where he denounced the U.S. embargo in stark terms, calling it a “vile and cowardly” strategy and defending the dignity of the Cuban people. That historical sentiment remains embedded in Mexico’s diplomatic posture. From Morena’s standpoint, the messaging machine is already warming up. Yesterday, the party’s president used her X account to circulate a video framing Cuba as “a heritage of humanity”.
Stuck between her party’s radical wing (firmly underpinned by her own long-held pro-Cuba ideological convictions) and an openly transactional White House, President Sheinbaum faces yet another balancing act. Ultimately, her central challenge will be to avoid appearing subordinated to Washington (with the USMCA review and the American demands that will surely come with it just around the corner), and her own political standing within Morena.
The BTS Ticketing Test: When K‑Pop Triggers Consumer Policy
What started as a recurring ticketing controversy, now with K-pop band BTS at the center, quickly turned into a regulatory signal. Following widespread complaints over pricing opacity, access conditions and resale dynamics, President Sheinbaum unexpected entered the fray, sending a letter to the band’s agency’s CEO — a move that framed the episode less as a fan dispute and more as a consumer protection matter with political visibility. The result: a high-profile reminder that mass entertainment is now a governance issue when it touches public trust at scale.
Consumer watchdog Profeco has now moved from messaging to enforcement. It opened a formal lawsuit against Ticketmaster, with a potential fine exceeding MXN 5 million. Ticketmaster has 10 business days to respond and submit evidence, with the deadline set for 12 February. In parallel, Profeco issued electronic exhortations to international resale platforms (Viagogo, StubHub and Helloticket), asking them to align with Mexican consumer rules and stop what the agency views as unfair practices. If they were to ignore the request, Profeco has signalled possible legal and administrative action, including restrictions on operating in Mexico.
The bigger takeaway is structural: the government is preparing new binding guidelines on ticket advertising, consumer information and sales practices, to be developed with the Agency for Digital Transformation and Telecommunications and published in the Official Gazette (DOF). In effect, the “BTS case” is becoming the template for a tighter compliance framework — not just for promoters and platforms, but for the entire live-events value chain.
Chatter box
- The Supreme Court rejected a climate-focused amparo seeking to force Congress to pass a single, specific law to phase out coal in power generation. The Court said there is no clear constitutional or treaty mandate requiring that exact legislative route, so it cannot label Congress’s inaction as an unconstitutional “legislative omission.” However, it also reaffirmed the broader point: Mexico still has a binding obligation—under the Constitution and international climate commitments—to update its legal framework to incorporate energy efficiency, emissions reduction, and lower carbon footprint criteria.
- The Senate has now received President Claudia Sheinbaum’s bill to cut Mexico’s workweek to 40 hours, with gradual implementation through 2030 and no wage reductions. The proposal advances in Congress, but it does so by keeping just one mandatory rest day per week after private‑sector lobbying against expanding rest to two days. The reform amends Article 123 of the Constitution to set a 40‑hour cap, but with a step‑by‑step schedule: 48 hours in 2026, 46 in 2027, 44 in 2028, 42 in 2029 and 40 from 2030 onward. Employers will be required to adapt schedules and productivity, since the text explicitly forbids cutting base pay or benefits as hours are reduced. The draft also tightens rules on overtime. Extra work may not exceed 12 hours per week, with a maximum of four extra hours per day. Any hours beyond that ceiling must be paid at 200 percent on top of the regular hourly wage, and minors under 18 are barred from extended shifts.
Contact:
Laura Camacho
Executive Director Miranda Public Affairs
laura.camacho@miranda-partners.com
Gilberto García
Partner and Head of Intelligence
gilberto.garcia@miranda-partners.com
Download PDF: MI Public Affairs Chatter 260127