Sovereignty vs. Security: Ronald Johnson as Tough Messenger
The nomination of Ronald Johnson as US ambassador to Mexico may suggest that security and immigration will be the Trump administration’s main focus in relations with Mexico, with trade used as a leverage to achieve these objectives. Johnson was formerly in the US Special Forces and the CIA, and Ambassador to El Salvador from September 2019 to January 2021, where he formed a close relationship with President Bukele, and supported his hugely successful but controversial campaign to cut down on violence. (El Salvador’s homicides rates fell from 100/100,000 in 2015 to as low as 2/100,000 in 2023, an astonishing achievement but at the cost of the loss of some civil liberties).
By contrast, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s public remarks following the appointment emphasize the importance for her of safeguarding Mexico’s sovereignty. Her call for reciprocal efforts—particularly in addressing the flow of arms from the US into Mexico—highlights inevitable asymmetries in the bilateral dynamic between Mexico and the USA, with Mexico far more dependent on the US, than the US on Mexico. Sheinbaum’s insistence on mutual respect as the basis for collaboration starkly contrasts with the interventionist undertones implicit in Johnson’s career trajectory, and some of the comments by President-elect Trump himself.
It remains to be seen how this will actually evolve. Sheinbaum’s comments on sovereignty are clearly intended in good part for Mexican public opinion. In reality, one should expect greater coordination on security matters with the US government than happened under AMLO. Indeed, this has already started under García Harfuch and for example the recent decommissioning of huge amounts of fentanyl supplies.
Nor should too much be read in Johnson’s appointment. Ambassadors typically have little power, with Trump himself, Secretary of State (Marco Rubio), his deputy for the Americas (Christopher Landau) and the trade advisors expected to be calling the shots in relations with Mexico. More likely Trump, Rubio and Landau have chosen Johnson to deliver tough messages, rather than decide what those messages are.
Power Struggle in Morena: Budget Disputes and Allegations Test Party Unity
Just days before the conclusion of the first legislative period, Adán Augusto López and Ricardo Monreal, leaders of Morena in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies respectively, and former rivals of Claudia Sheinbaum for the presidential nomination, find themselves in a power struggle. Tensions have escalated following last-minute cuts by the Chamber of Deputies to the Senate’s budget.
In response, Adán Augusto took the floor to report alleged irregularities in contracts amounting to 150 million pesos during Ricardo Monreal’s tenure as the leader of Morena’s majority in the Senate.
The chairwoman of the Finance Committee stated that the senator’s claim is “inaccurate” and reiterated that “the Senate’s budget increased by 3 percent. In concrete terms, the Senate received a budget of 4.955 billion pesos in 2024, and for 2025 it will receive 5.104 billion pesos.”
President Sheinbaum has called on both leaders to resolve their differences. “They understand the significance of the movement and the transformation. This misunderstanding must be resolved, and it cannot be that a budget issue leads to a dispute,” she said.
The dispute gains greater significance as it could determine which chamber will have closer ties to the executive and more influence in the implementation of secondary laws that will operationalize the various approved constitutional reforms next year.
2025 Budget Approved: A Focus on Social Programs and Infrastructure
The approval of Mexico’s 2025 Federal Expenditure Budget, amounting to a historic 9.3 trillion pesos, reflects the Sheinbaum administration’s commitment to prioritizing social programs, health, and education. The budget, which represents an increase of 235.97 billion pesos from 2024, is intended to sustain key infrastructure projects while focusing on social equity.
Despite its ambitious goals, the approval process was marked by a semi-virtual session and minimal participation, raising questions about the depth of debate on such a significant fiscal plan. While the government highlights the budget’s alignment with its core principles, opposition voices have expressed concerns about the allocation of resources.
The Sheinbaum administration has positioned this budget as a cornerstone for delivering its promises, ensuring access to essential services, and reinforcing popular programs. As implementation begins, much will depend on transparent management and measurable outcomes.
Labor Organizations Urge Equal Representation in Infonavit Decisions
Labor unions participating in Infonavit have urged the legislative branch to uphold the constitutional principle of tripartism within the institution. In a joint statement, unions emphasized the importance of maintaining equal representation across sectors in governing bodies, ensuring balanced decision-making, and preserving social dialogue.
The unions warned that altering this structure would disrupt the established balance, granting effective unilateral control to the government. Signed by groups such as the CTM, CROM, and others, the statement stressed that weakening tripartism risks undermining consensus-building, a cornerstone of effective public policy and a unique model in Latin America.
The opposition said that the reform aims to concentrate power in the hands of the federal government and diminishes the representation of workers and employers in Infonavit’s key decision-making bodies. “The creation of a subsidiary company controlled by Infonavit could pave the way for opacity and corruption, as it lacks the necessary oversight mechanisms to prevent resource mismanagement. Under the proposed changes, the Infonavit Audit Committee would consist of three government representatives, one workers’ representative, and one employers’ representative, thereby undermining the principle of tripartism,” they criticized.
Worker Rights in Mexico’s Platform Economy
The Senate’s approval of the Federal Labor Law reform concerning digital platforms is intended to address the difficult conditions faced by thousands of gig workers in Mexico, but analysts worry it may have gone too far. The legislation could be some of the most draconian laws regulating gig workers in the world, unless watered down, with concerns about the impact on gig workers via lower job opportunities, and on consumers via higher prices.
The reform promises significant change: formalizing employment relationships, ensuring social security benefits, and outlawing practices like withholding wages or charging workers for platform access, addressing accusations that the tech industry evades regulation under the guise of “flexibility” and “innovation.”
The big players—Uber, Didi, and Rappi—have warned onerous regulations will lead to fewer jobs, and higher prices. The focus is now moving to secondary legislation where the tech companies hope to reduce the most negative impacts, by for example levelling taxes on Gig workers only on net income after costs (fuel, etc.).
Chief Justice Highlights Challenges Facing the Judiciary
Chief Justice Norma Piña Hernández of Mexico’s Supreme Court denounced the sustained attacks on judges, magistrates, and justices. During her second and potentially final annual report, Piña defended the judiciary’s independence and condemned the dismissal of hundreds of judges and the erosion of the judicial career system.
She warned against innovations based on “false and unfounded narratives,” which, through repetition, have been treated as truth. Piña criticized using public platforms to delegitimize the Federal Judiciary, highlighting its detrimental impact on judicial independence. Her report notably lacked representation from Congress and key judicial officials.
New Reform Bans Vaping and Synthetic Drugs in Mexico
The constitutional reform banning the use of vape pens, electronic cigarettes, and illicit fentanyl appears, on the surface, as a commendable effort to address public health and the drug crisis. However, in the opinion of jurists and experts, it could be a regressive measure that undermines individual liberties, and fails to effectively address the root causes of these issues.
For many experts and some opposition voices, prohibiting vape devices does little to reduce consumption; it merely drives the market underground. Stripped with access to regulated products, consumers may turn to the black market, where quality and safety are unmonitored. This not only jeopardizes public health but also inadvertently strengthens organized crime by handing them a lucrative new revenue stream. Ironically, a policy intended to promote safety could result in even more significant harm to consumers. The opposition’s concern is that this reform appears more performative than pragmatic, targeting visible symptoms rather than systemic issues.
Contact:
Laura Camacho
Executive Director Miranda Public Affairs
laura.camacho@miranda-partners.com
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