Weekly Mexico Market Monitor
Friday AM, December 1, 2023
MARKETS
The FTSE-BIVA index closed on November 30 at 1,115.15 slightly up from its November 23 close at 1,098.77.
The MXN/USD exchange rate weakened to 17.39 pesos to the dollar on November 30, from its close of 17.19 pesos on November 23.
The Mexican 10-year bond (2031) closed on Thursday with a yield of 9.384%, down slightly from a yield of 9.563% on November 23.
The FTSE-BIVA Top Stock Gainers for the week were: TELEVISA (+37.41%), PEÑOLES (+14.32%) and VOLARIS (+14.19%) and the Biggest Losers were: NEMAK (-7.84%), GCC (-7.43%) and ALPEK (-6.89%).
CORPORATE & MARKET NEWS
Fibra Uno, the country’s largest real estate investment trust, delayed the initial public offering (IPO) of Fibra Next, one day before its scheduled debut on the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV). This was due to a delay in the Tax Administration Service (SAT) approving its status as a Fibra, enabling the company to be largely tax-free as long as it distributes cash flow to shareholders.
Mexico’s President claimed that the Danish fund, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, will invest as much as US $10 billion for the construction of a green hydrogen plant in the Isthmus of Mexico, although details remain to be seen and financial reality may interfere with such plans.
In Monterrey, StudioMart is developing a second studio to produce films and series; it would start operations in 2024 and requires an investment of close to US $1 million.
Mira, a Mexico City-based real estate development company, has earmarked 1.4 billion pesos, or about US $82 million, to invest in Cuadrante Centro Sur in Querétaro. They aim to develop a plot of land there into commercial space and recreational areas, alongside seven urbanized macrolots.
Evergo plans to install more than 15,000 new electric car charging stations in residential, commercial and public environments in Mexico. They estimate an investment of US $200 million over the next five years.
Mondelēz International has invested US $75 million in Mexico a year after integrating Ricolino’s operations into its business and its plan is to continue expanding the brand to other international markets.
Webull, a US trading platform, announced that it will take over Flink, the CDMX-based fintech that offers its clients a platform to buy commission-free shares in US markets, and also is set to own Vifaru brokerage in Mexico, still subject to regulatory approval.
Grupo Financiero Banorte announced that Uniteller Financial Services, Inc. its international payment processing company, signed an agreement to acquire More Payment Evolution, a Uruguayan digital payments platform, possibly signally a move by Mexico’s largest locally owned bank to grow outside Mexico.
Becle contracted two unsecured loans for up to US $535 million to prepay short term bank loans of US $500 million, with US $35 million kept in reserve. Both loans have a 5-year maturity which improves the company’s average maturity from 4.2 to 5.5 years.
Zubale, a CDMX-based startup that developed a platform to automate e-commerce processes, is reportedly raising US $25 million in an investment led by QED Investors. Sebastian Monroy, the company’s co-founder stated that the capital will be used to consolidate its presence in Mexico and Brazil.
POLITICS
In the first shortlist sent by López Obrador to the senate to fill the vacancy in the Supreme Court, all three potential replacements failed to receive the necessary endorsement votes. Bertha María Alcalde, Lenia Batres and María Estela Ríos were all seen by the opposition to have too close of a relationship to the president.
The Mexican government maintained that they will be cancelling Ganfeng Lithium’s concessions, first announced in August, with Ganfeng promising to ‘pursue additional remedies under Mexican or international law, including but not limited to filing an international arbitration or an annulment claim.’
On Tuesday, 5 journalists were shot in one day in Mexico, marking the one of the most dangerous days for reporters in the country’s history. Maynor Ramón Ramírez was wounded in Apatzingan, while four photographers were shot in Chilpancingo, Guerrero.
TRADE & ECONOMICS
Mexico’s unemployment rate, measured as a percentage of the economically active population (EAP), decreased from 2.7% in September to 2.6% in October. It reached a new 18-year low, despite the damage caused by Hurricane Otis in Guerrero.
The Banco de México raised its growth estimates for Mexico once more, forecasting a raised GDP growth for the year of 3.33% slightly above the prior 3% estimate. For 2024, they raised estimates for Mexico’s GDP growth from 2.1 to 3%, and for 2025 GDP growth is predicted at 1.5%. Inflation expectations remain steady, with 2023 ending at 4.4% (headline) and 5.3% (core), and 2024 forecasts at 3.4% and 3.3%, respectively. Banxico may consider interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2024.
NEWS ABOUT MEXICO IN THE FOREIGN PRESS
29/11/2023, Wall Street Journal, Anthony Harrup
30/11/2023, Reuters, Stefanie Eschenbacher and Simon Jessop
29/11/2023, Bloomberg, Michael O’Boyle
28/11/2023, The Washington Post, AP
28/11/2023, Bloomberg, Amy Stillman
11/28/23, New York Times, Simon Romero and Emiliano Rodriguez Mega
11/28/23, LA Times, Gordon Cole-Schmidt and Mirja Vogel
27/11/2023, The Wall Street Journal, Anthony Harrup
26/11/2023, Financial Times, Christine Murray
25/11/2023, Reuters, Troy Merida, Raquel Cunha