MARKETS
The S&P / BMV IPC was up 2.4% over the week, following US equity indexes which rebounded after steep declines earlier this month, further supported by the FED’s comments about potential interest cuts during the rest of the year. Meanwhile, the Mexican Peso was little changed at 20.15, while the yield of the 10-year M-Bono was down 10 bps to 9.41%.
The S&P / BMV IPC’s top stock gainers for the week were: ASUR B (+12.3%), OMA B (+7.8%) and RA * (+5.9%). The main losers were: PEÑOLES * (-12.7%), TLEVISA CPO (-2.3%) and BIMBO A (-1.7%).
Next week Banco de México will hold its monetary policy meeting. Economists participating in the Citi Mexico Expectation Survey expect a 50-bps reduction in the key interest rate. The following macroeconomic indicators will be announced: inflation rate, IGAE, retail sales, trade balance and unemployment rate.
LISTED COMPANIES
América Móvil will propose a MXN$0.52/share cash dividend (3.6% yield) and a MXN$10 billion increase in its share buyback reserve for the April 2025 – April 2026 period, at its shareholder’s meeting next month.
Asur will propose payment of an unusually high dividend at its Annual General Meeting which will take place on April 23rd. The proposal includes a MXN$50.0/share ordinary dividend payable in May 2025, and two extraordinary dividends of MXN$15.0/share each, scheduled for September and November 2025. The total dividend yield is 13.7% against the current share price.
Ollamni signed a MXN$2.1 billion credit agreement with a 12-year term with Banorte to finance the renovation of the Estadio Azteca, which will be renamed Estadio Banorte following a long-term sponsorship agreement between the companies.
Traxion raised a MXN$10 billion unsecured syndicated loan with a group of 5 banks, which consists of a MNX$6.5 billion simple credit line with maturity in 2030, a MXN$1.0 billion revolving line and a MXN$2.5 billion committed loan. The interest rate is 30-35 bps lower than that of the current syndicated loan. The company will initially withdraw MXN$2.85 billion to prepay outstanding debt, including the existing syndicated loan.
Diablos Rojos del México announced it has completed a stock split of 100 new shares for each existing share, increasing its capital stock to 62,425,500 shares. The company will also conduct a MXN$133.5 million capital increase from March 19th to April 2nd, 2025. Shareholders will subscribe to 0.2138549151 new shares for each existing one at a price of MXN$10.0/share and a MXN$6.50/share subscription premium.
Fibra HD completed the sale of two commercial properties, Niza 66 in Mexico City and Plaza La Roca in Quintana Roo, for MXN$182.7 million. These properties had a GLA of 9,000 M2 and were part of its divestment portfolio.
Lasites will exchange its existing B-1 series and B2 series shares for new “Unique” series shares next March 28th.
OTHER COMPANIES
Fermaca, a Mexican infrastructure development company, will invest US$3.7 billion in two projects in the State of Durango as part of the “Plan Mexico”. This includes a US$2.7 billion data center and a US$1.0 billion in a nitrogenated fertilizer plant.
Energía Real, a Mexican distributed energy generation company, announced it will invest US$700 million over the next six years. The investment will be allocated to on-site solar energy production and storage, as well as the development of private grid infrastructure in strategic sectors and for industrial parks, shopping centers, and real estate, among others.
US company Coeur Mining will invest US$1.3 billion to acquire the “Las Chispas” mine in Sonora, which was previously owned by SilverCrest.
DiDi Global launched DiDi Travel in Mexico, allowing its 16 million active users across 60 cities to book domestic and international flights with over 51 airlines and access 1.5 million lodging options in Mexico and worldwide.
Mexico Infrastructure Partners (MIP) announced the partial divestiture of its water treatment plant in Agua Prieta, Sonora. No amount was provided.
TRADE AND ECONOMICS
Aggregate demand and supply remained unchanged QoQ in 4Q24, weakening from the 1.2% QoQ increase in the previous quarter, INEGI reported. From the demand side, private investment fell 1.6%, private consumption declined 1.4%, and public investment was down 0.1%, which were offset by a 3.6% increase in exports. Aggregate demand and supply grew 1.9% YoY in 4Q24, lower than the 2.3% YoY increase in 3Q24, supported mainly by a 12.6% export rise and a 1.1% increase in public consumption.
Economists expect a 50-bps reduction in Banco de Mexico’s key interest rate in the March 27th monetary policy meeting, according to the last Citi Mexico Expectations Survey. They also anticipate that the Central Bank’s interest rate will close at 8.00% (from 8.25%) in 2025 and 7.50% (unchanged) in 2026. They lowered their GDP growth forecast to 0.6% (from 0.8%) in 2025 and 1.7% (from 1.8%) in 2026. They increased their inflation expectations to 3.80% (from 3.77%) in 2025 and 3.78% (from 3.70%) in 2026; the core inflation was also revised upwards to 3.75% (from 3.71%) in 2025 and 3.66% (from 3.61%) in 2026. The consensus now projects a YE FX rate of 20.98 (from 21.0) in 2025 and 21.50 (unchanged) in 2026.
The OECD lowered its forecasts for Mexico’s GDP, as it now expects a 1.3% contraction in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026. The new prediction is based on the expectation that the US Government will impose 25% imports tariffs on most Mexican goods starting on April 2nd. If no tariffs are imposed, Mexico’s GDP would grow 0.1% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026.
The “Opportunistic Indicator of Private Consumption” (IOCP) anticipates a 0.8% annual increase in private consumption for January and a 1.7% contraction for February. On a monthly basis, no variation is expected for January, while a 0.1% decline is projected for February.
The “Opportunistic Indicator of Economic Activity” (IOAE) anticipates a 0.7% YoY decline, and a 0.2% MoM increase in February’s IGAE.
Hacienda improved its debt maturity profile through two local debt market operations. This included a syndicated placement on March 13th of a new 3-year Udibono with a 4% coupon and a 5.015% yield, bringing the outstanding amount to MXN$41 billion. As part of a refinancing operation, the institution repurchased MXN$33.32 billion in Cetes, Bonos M, and short-term Udibonos, optimizing maturities by exchanging MXN$2.08 billion due in 2025, MXN$14.77 billion in 2026, and MXN$16.47 billion in 2028 for the new instrument.
President Sheinbaum signed eight secondary laws of the energy reform, calling it a reversal of the 2013 privatization reform and a recovery of Pemex and CFE.
CETES auction: 27-day CETES -4 bps to 9.10%; 91-day CETES -2 bps to 9.00%; 182-day CETES +5 bps to 8.99% and 350-day CETES -12 bps to 8.99%.
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