MARKETS
The S&P / BMV IPC was up 1.2% over the week, with improved sentiment after the US Government paused its plan to impose tariffs for at least one month, and as investors cheered Banco de Mexico’s accelerated interest rate cut along with Cemex’s solid quarterly results. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso recovered 1.3% to close at MXN$20.46/USD while the yield of the Mexican 10-year M-Bono was down 21 bps to 9.79%.
The S&P / BMV IPC’s top stock gainers for the week were: CEMEX * (+10.3%), PEÑOLES * (+8.8%) and GCC * (+8.6%). The index’s biggest losers were: GRUMA B (-4.6%), OMA B (-3.2%) and GCARSO A1 (-3.0%).
The following macroeconomic indicators will be announced next week: industrial production, trade balance, and auto exports and production.
LISTED COMPANIES
BBB Foods Inc. has priced its underwritten public offering of 21 million Class A common shares at $28.25 per share. The offering is being conducted by selling shareholders and is expected to close on February 7, 2025, subject to customary conditions. Additionally, underwriters have the option to purchase up to 3.15 million additional shares.
Cemex’s shares rallied 12.4% on Thursday after the company reported 4Q24 results ahead of expectations and gave an upbeat guidance for 2025. Cemex’s consolidated 4Q24 net sales remained flat YoY on a like-to-like basis as higher prices offset lower volumes. Operating EBITDA grew 3% YoY, helped by a favorable fuel cost environment. The EBITDA margin expanded 40 bps to 17.9%, with all regions experiencing a margin expansion. Net income reached US$48 million, compared to a US$441 million loss last year. Free cash flow increased 27% due to a significant turnaround in working capital. Consolidated net debt declined 15% primarily driven by net proceeds from asset divestments, FX hedging strategy, and FCF resulting in a leverage ratio of 1.81x, the lowest level since 2007. The company met its EBITDA guidance for 2024. In 2025, Cemex expects a low to single digit increase in cement and ready mix volumes and flat volume in aggregates, flat EBITDA but strong FCF.
Funo received a positive confirmation criterion from the SAT on January 31st which will allow it to IPO its industrial subsidiary NEXT as soon as market conditions allow it to do so. FUNO’s industrial portfolio had a GLA of 6 million sq mts with an occupancy of 98.4% at the end of 3Q24.
TelevisaUnivision has acquired the exclusive broadcast rights for the 2028 and 2032 Olympic Games for open television, pay television and digital platforms in Mexico. It also purchased non-exclusive radio rights.
ASUR’s total passenger traffic increased 1.7% YoY to 6.4 million in January, mainly as a result of a 12.3% growth in Colombia and a 9.3% rise in Puerto Rico which were partially mitigated by a 4.1% reduction in Mexico.
GAP’s total passenger traffic grew 5.2% YoY in January, as a result of a 6.3% YoY increase at its 12 Mexican airports which was partially offset by a 7.3% reduction at Montego Bay. The company issued MXN$6.0 billion in Cebures in two tranches: i) MXN$3.0 billion with a 3-year maturity and floating interest rate of TIIE + 50 bps; and, ii) MXN$3.0 billion reopening of the GAP22-2 issue with a 2032 maturity and a fixed interest rate of 9.67%.
OMA’s passenger traffic at its 13 airports increased 9.9% YoY in January, as with domestic traffic up 7.3%, and international traffic rising 24.0%.
Volaris’ total passenger traffic advanced 4.3% YoY to 2.6 million in January. ASM capacity increased 4.7% while the load factor declined 1.5 PP to 86.6%. The company expects its capacity to increase between 13-15% in 2025.
Axtel’s 4Q24 revenues were up 18% YoY, with strong growth across all segments. Comparable EBITDA grew 6%. Net debt to comparable EBITDA ratio decreased to 2.5x, from 2.9x the previous year. The company generated over US $40 million in free cash flow during the year, which was used to partially prepay a US $34 million bank loan. In 2025, Axtel expects revenues of MXN$12.8 billion with an EBITDA of nearly MXN$4.0 billion.
Norte 19’s ADR’s continued to increase above inflation (+9.6% YoY), due to the company’s strategy of maximizing its rates, while its occupancy remained resilient to this price adjustment (49.3% in Dec’24 vs. 50.0% in Dec’23). These figures resulted in a healthy 8.0% YoY RevPar growth to MXN$675, and an 11.1% YoY rise in consolidated revenues to MXN$317.4 million.
Grupo Rotoplas’ 4Q24 revenues declined 19% mainly as a result of a weak performance at its Argentinean operations which was partially offset by rising sales in its other geographies. EBITDA decreased 57% YoY as the company registered P$54 million in severance payments in the quarter. The net loss amounted to MXN$122 million, compared with a MXN$71 million gain in 4Q23.
Walmex has signed an alliance with RappiCard (owned and managed by Banorte) to offer its customers interest-free installments with their credit card. The promotion will be valid in the physical and online Walmart Supercenter, Bodega Aurrera and Sam’s Club stores.
Gentera’s Peruvian subsidiary Compartamos Financiera, S.A., has obtained authorization from local authorities to operate as a bank from last January 30th, 2025. It will be renamed Compartamos Banco, S.A.
Fibra Inn announced the appointment of Jaime Cohen Bistre as its new CEO as of February 1st. Mr. Cohen has a career spanning more than 15 years in various companies in the hotel and real estate sector, the most recent being Parks Hospitality Holdings where he served as VP of hospitality and asset management for a portfolio with more than 12,000 rooms. He will replace Miguel Aliaga, who will return to his previous position as the company’s CFO.
Vinte voted in favor of delisting Javer’s shares from the BMV. Vinte is Javer’s majority shareholder with a 99.94% equity stake.
Fibra Prologis announced that Deborah Briones, Chief Legal Officer and General Counsel of Prologis, Inc.; Carter Andrus, Chief Operating Officer of Prologis; and Joseph Ghazal, Chief Investment Officer of Prologis, have been appointed as non-independent members of the Technical Committee.
Megacable announced the integration of its subsidiaries ho1a Innovation, MetroCarrier and MCM Telecom into MCM Business Tech-Co, which will focus on solutions for enterprises, corporations, the public sector and carriers.
OTHER COMPANIES
CFE’s CEO Emilia Calleja unveiled the 2025-2030 “Strengthening and Expansion Plan of the National Electricity System” which includes more than US$22 billion in investments in 51 projects to increase the CFE’s capacity by 22,674 MW with an additional 5,600 MW from the private sector.
Casa de Bolsa Finamex has formalized certain agreements to acquire a majority stake in Columbus de México, S.A. de C.V., an independent investment advisor.
TRADE AND ECONOMICS
The highly respected economist José Gabriel Cuadra was appointed as Banco de Mexico’s new deputy governor by President Claudia Sheinbaum and ratified by the Senate. Mr. Cuadra previously was Banco de Mexico’s Director of Economic Studies.
Banco de Mexico accelerated the monetary loosening as it cut its key interest rate by 50 bps to 9.50%, as widely expected according to the last Citi Mexico Expectations Survey. Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, Galia Borja Gómez, recently appointed José Gabriel Cuadra García, and Omar Mejía Castelazo voted in favor of a 50 bps cut, while Jonathan Heath voted for a 25 bps reduction.
The inflation rate was 0.29% MoM in January, which compares against the 0.33% consensus forecast according to the Citi Mexico Expectations Survey. Core inflation stood at 0.41%, vs. the 0.44% consensus expectation. As a result, the last twelve-month inflation rate was 3.59%, while the last twelve-month core inflation rate was 3.66%.
Economists kept their GDP growth forecasts unchanged at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.8% for 2026, according to the last Citi Mexico Expectations Survey. They also predict an inflation rate of 3.90% (from 3.91%) in 2025 and 3.72% (from 3.77%) in 2026; a core inflation rate of 3.74% (from 3.68%) in 2025 and 3.60% in 2026 (unchanged); a YE FX rate of 21.0 (from 20.95) in 2025 and 21.30 (from 21.49) in 2026; and a YE Banco de Mexico interest rate of 8.50% in 2025 and 7.50% for 2026.
Economists lowered their 2025 GDP growth expectations to 1.07% in 2025, from 1.17%, and maintained their 2026 forecast basically unchanged at 1.75% in 2026, according to Banco de Mexico’s most recent Private Sector Expectations Survey. They also expect an inflation rate of 3.83% in 2025 and 3.77% in 2026 (from 3.86% and 3.73%, respectively); a YE FX rate of 20.96 in 2025 and 21.30 in 2026 (from 20.69 and 21.01, respectively) and Banco de Mexico’s key interest rate to close at 8.29% in 2025 and 7.47% in 2026 (from 8.31% and 7.50%, respectively).
The Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption was up 0.5% MoM (seasonally adjusted) in November, rebounding from the monthly declines of the two last months, INEGI reported. It was driven by the increases of 1.7% in imported goods and 0.4% in domestic ones. The Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption advanced 0.3% YoY (original data), fueled by a 1.0% rise in domestic goods which was partially offset by a 0.7% decline in imported products and services.
The Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.3 pts MoM (seasonally adjusted) to 46.7 pts in January, INEGI reported, which was the lowest level since October 2023. It was dragged down by the “expected situation of the country in the next 12 months” and “expected situation of household members in the next 12 months” components, which fell 0.9 pts and 0.6 pts, respectively.
Gross fixed investment grew 0.1% MoM (seasonally adjusted), which was the second month in a row with a positive performance. Machinery and equipment rose 1.7% MoM, while construction declined 1.0% MoM. Nevertheless, gross fixed investment declined 1.7% YoY (original data), being the third month in a row with an annual contraction, as construction fell 6.0% YoY while machinery and equipment advanced 5.8% YoY.
Remittances fell 4.9% YoY to US$5.228 billion in December, Banco de Mexico reported. This was the third fall in the last four months. However, remittances increased 2.3% in 2024 to a record high level of US$64.745 billion.
Business confidence declined 0.6 pts MoM and 4.6 pts YoY (seasonally adjusted) to 51.4 in January, according to INEGI. The indicator accumulated 24 months above the 50 pts level. The main drivers were: construction (-0.7 pts MoM and -4.8 pts YoY), non-financial private services (-1.6 pts MoM and -7.0 pts YoY), Retail (+0.6 pts MoM and -1.6 pts YoY) and Manufacturing (+0.3% MoM and -2.7% YoY).
The private sector created 73,167 formal jobs in January, according to IMSS, which was the lowest level for a similar month since 2021. Total jobs posts reached 22.1 million, of which 86.8% are permanent and 13.2% are temporary.
Light vehicle sales increased 5.9% YoY to 119,811 units, INEGI reported, which was the best performance for a similar month in the last four years.
President Claudia Sheinbaum submitted to the Senate eight new secondary laws related to the energy reform which was approved in October 2024.
The Chamber of Deputies approved the Infonavit Law which will allow the Institute to acquire land and build up to 1 million social houses during the current presidential period. The institute will be supervised by Hacienda.
CETES auction: 28-day CETES -22 bps to 9.65%; 91-day CETES -10 bps to 9.54%; 182-day CETES -9 bps to 9.52% and 364-day CETES -26 bps to 9.52%.
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