Mexico’s Public Affairs Chatter
AMLO: The End of an Era
Today marks the end of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s transformative six-year reign. This titan of the Mexican left, a powerhouse in Latin American politics, is stepping down.
He leaves Mexico with lower levels of poverty, far higher wages and pensions than when he took office but with many doubts about the sustainability of his economic achievements and concerns over the country’s eroding institutional framework, especially relating to the independence of judiciary. The government’s budget deficit this year will be the highest in modern history at 6% of GDP, fueled by fiscal support for loss-making Pemex, large increases in government transfers and the elevated costs of controversial projects such as the Dos Bocas refinery and Mayan Train with uncertain benefits. GDP growth has been sluggish over his administration, held back by COVID, low productivity and uneven investment. The question remains: Will his successor be able to consolidate the gains made in his administration and correct the imbalances, or will it struggle under the weight of his controversial legacy?
Popular opinion is firmly on AMLO’s side. A recent survey by El País, W Radio, and Enkoll, one of Mexico’s most accurate pollsters in the June election, reveals a staggering 77% approval rating as he exits. The highlights: 83% of respondents applaud improved social support, 80% commend strides in gender equity, 71% praise infrastructure projects, and 64% note educational advancements. Yet, security remains a glaring failure, with only 40% seeing any improvement.
Even on his last day, AMLO couldn’t resist clashing with former President Felipe Calderón. On Sunday, he issued a decree granting lifetime pensions to parents of children affected by the ABC Nursery fire during Calderón’s term, ensuring ongoing support for those who endured such a tragic loss.
His final act? Championing the controversial Mayan Train project. On Sunday, he led the closing ceremony in Chetumal, Quintana Roo, flanked by President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, defense and navy secretaries, and construction company representatives.
The Reformer
López Obrador will end his six-year term boasting 27 constitutional reforms passed by Congress, laying the groundwork for his so-called “Fourth Transformation.”
These amendments include the controversial Judiciary Reform, Educational Reform, and constitutional status for pensions for the elderly and disabled, plus scholarships for public school students.
His reforms also to dismantle seven autonomous bodies, including INAI, Cofece, and IFT, will be left to his successor to determine.
Just this past week, he pushed through the transfer of the National Guard from the Secretary of Security to the Secretary of Defense and secured full recognition of the rights of Indigenous and Afro-Mexican peoples.
His Last Day
Today, López Obrador will deliver a brief report on his tenure, claiming it won’t exceed 10 minutes. After that, he’ll have breakfast with his team and the press who covered his daily conferences. A portrait of him will be unveiled, and there will even be a raffle for one of his watches.
He’ll dine with some of the presidents attending Sheinbaum’s inauguration in the afternoon. He has announced that he will no longer sleep in the National Palace on Monday, September 30.
Sheinbaum: First female President and Keeper of the Fourth Transformation’s Legacy
On October 1, Claudia Sheinbaum will take her oath before the Congress of the Union. The General Congress session starts at 9:00 AM with parliamentary group statements, expected to last about an hour and a half. Following this, the President and President-elect will be received. Ifigenia Martínez, Chairman of the Chamber of Deputies, will remove the presidential sash from Andrés Manuel López Obrador and place it on Sheinbaum.
After her oath and inaugural speech in the Chamber of Deputies, Sheinbaum will head to the National Palace for breakfast with her inauguration guests, including international leaders like Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Gabriel Boric Font, Gustavo Petro Urrego, and Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez. Later that afternoon, she will meet her supporters in Mexico City’s Zócalo.
A grand ceremony for Sheinbaum, who now bears the weighty task of continuing López Obrador’s contentious legacy. Will she rise to the challenge or falter under the pressure? Only time will tell.
Judge Tries to Halt Electoral Process for Judicial Reform While INE Scrambles
Last Tuesday, September 24, a federal judge ordered the suspension of the extraordinary elections related to the judicial reform. This comes after the INE General Council decreed on June 23, the start of the electoral year, aiming to hold elections on the first Sunday of June 2025.
In response, INE President Guadalupe Taddei stated that such rulings can be appealed, but a judge’s order cannot be ignored. Once INE is officially notified, the Institute’s Legal Department must analyze the ruling.
Taddei did not rule out the possibility that the General Council might need to convene to decide on the next steps if the INE is ordered to halt the election preparations.
With only 250 days to organize these elections, Taddei emphasized that the INE will proceed “in a certain and impartial way” despite lacking precise information on the positions to be filled and the necessary budget, which depends on the Senate and the Council of the Judiciary.
This chaotic situation raises serious questions about the future of Judicial Reform and the integrity of the electoral process.