Mexico’s Transition Chatter
AMLO: The last seven days
We are merely days from the end of López Obrador’s term, and the incoming Sheinbaum administration faces no shortage of challenges. However, a critical issue that still casts a shadow is the transition of power within Morena, and the role AMLO will continue to play in the new government and Congress.
Yesterday’s National Congress of the party saw the rubber-stamped appointment of Luisa María Alcalde, former Interior Minister in López Obrador’s cabinet and one of his most loyal operators. With Andrés López Beltrán, the president’s son, also appointed as the party’s Secretary of Organization, concerns have risen that the soon to be ex-President will be yielding power from the party, and indirectly from Congress, dominated by Morena loyalists. Despite AMLO’s claims of non-interference in the new government, his announcement on September 9 hinted otherwise.
Carolina Rangel, a former government official from Michoacán, joins as Secretary General. Still, it’s hard to ignore that Morena’s leadership structure appears less about ties to incoming President Sheinbaum (as would normally have been the case) and more about loyalty to López Obrador’s inner circle.
Just a decade after its founding, López Obrador’s popularity has catapulted Morena into the most-voted force in Mexico, winning the presidency, the qualified majority in Congress, and the governorships of 24 of the country’s 32 states. It should not be surprising that he wants to remain involved in how Morena is run going forward, and ensure the Fourth Transformation under the new President remains loyal to its values. Putting his son in a key Morena position is likely to achieve that.
Judicial Election Process: INE Faces Hurdles in Uncharted Territory
The INE’s announcement of the upcoming electoral process for the judiciary raises questions about the readiness and transparency of this unprecedented undertaking. The statement from Guadalupe Taddei, INE’s President, about initiating the process on September 23 highlights the complexity and the rushed nature of creating an electoral framework from scratch, with no established secondary laws or political party involvement.
While the INE has started coordinating with the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, as Ms. Taddei pointed out, it’s difficult to overlook the challenges of aligning judicial districts with traditional electoral districts. The fact that these adjustments are being made on the fly only emphasizes how unprepared the system really is for such a drastic overhaul.
It’s crucial to ask, can a process built in haste and without precedent ensure a fair and transparent election? The absence of a robust legal framework adds further risk to the legitimacy of the electoral process.
Militarization or Public Security? The National Guard Reforms Under Scrutiny
The Chamber of Deputies’ approval of reforms granting new powers to the National Guard and fully transferring it to the Army, now officially reporting to the Secretary of National Defense, raises severe concerns about the direction of Mexico’s public security strategy. While the reform claims to establish a “permanent” force composed of “military personnel with police training”, the reality is that it solidifies a move toward militarization. A last-minute change to the text, emphasizing the National Guard’s military origins, only deepens these concerns.
Including the National Guard in criminal investigations alongside the Public Ministry blurs the lines between military and civilian law enforcement, further empowering military forces in areas traditionally overseen by civilian institutions. Despite the government’s insistence that these changes are necessary for public safety, the opposition rightly points out the alarming rise in violent deaths during López Obrador’s administration, surpassing the levels seen during the Calderón and Peña Nieto presidencies.
Sheinbaum’s Inauguration: A Show of Leftist Alliances
Sheinbaum’s announcement of the confirmed attendance of 105 countries and 22 international organizations for her inauguration may sound impressive, but a closer look raises some questions. Among the 16 heads of state attending, the overwhelming presence of leftist leaders from Latin America, such as Lula da Silva, Gustavo Petro, Gabriel Boric, and Miguel Díaz-Canel, signals an ideological alignment. While it’s notable that the U.S. will send a delegation led by First Lady Jill Biden, the absence of more diverse political representation, particularly from global powers outside the left-leaning sphere, casts doubt on the broader diplomatic appeal of this event.