MI’s Security Chatter – Jan. 29, 2025

By Fausto Carbajal Glass, Partner, Miranda Delphi Solutions

Today’s Security Chatter examines the confluence of several pivotal developments: President Sheinbaum’s security plan proposal to Washington, the establishment of Mexico’s Agency for Digital Transformation and Telecommunications, and escalating border tensions following alleged cartel aggressions. Against the backdrop of preparations for the 2026 World Cup and Trump’s classification of cartels as terrorist organizations, these developments illustrate the complex interplay between national sovereignty, bilateral cooperation, and institutional adaptation to new challenges. This compendium denotes how these interconnected events are reshaping the paradigm of bilateral relations in North America.

 

Mexico Prepares Security Plan to Present to Washington.

President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration is developing a security proposal for Washington aimed at establishing a bilateral agreement with the United States. The initiative focuses on reducing violence in Mexico, preventing arms trafficking from the US, and stopping the drug flow into the US. This effort comes in response to President Trump’s executive order designating Mexican drug cartels as international terrorist organizations. This designation would have far-reaching implications beyond national security and politics, potentially affecting businesses with Mexican connections. Any payment or logistical assistance to cartels could be interpreted as supporting terrorist groups, resulting in asset seizures, criminal charges, and substantial fines. Sheinbaum criticized Trump’s “unilateral decisions”, emphasizing that collaboration and coordination, not unilateral actions, are key to combating drug cartels. Her team of lawyers is currently analyzing the economic implications for organizations that, while not linked to criminal groups, could face financial challenges.

El Financiero, 1/27/25, Eduardo Ortega: México alista plan de seguridad para presentarlo ante Washington.

 

Mexican and US Officials to Negotiate Security, Migration and USMCA.

The bilateral relationship between Mexico and the United States under Trump’s new administration is focusing on three key areas: security, migration, and economy. Key officials have been appointed on both sides to handle these critical matters. For Mexico, President Sheinbaum’s team includes Juan Ramón de la Fuente in foreign affairs, Marcelo Ebrard in economy, and Omar García Harfuch in security. Trump’s administration features Marco Rubio, Kristi Noem, Tom Homan, Scott Bessent, and Michael Waltz in corresponding roles. Initial diplomatic contact was established through a phone call between both countries’ foreign affairs representatives, described as “cordial.” Major challenges include Trump’s reinstatement of the “Remain in Mexico” program, which Mexican officials oppose as a unilateral decision, increased border security measures, and potential trade tensions.

Expansión Política, 1/24/25, Lidia Arista: Los funcionarios de México y EU que negociarán en seguridad, migración y TMEC.

 

Sheinbaum Administration Creates General Directorate of Cybersecurity.

President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has established the Agency for Digital Transformation and Telecommunications (ATDT), which will have several key directorates including Data Intelligence, Digital Government, and Cybersecurity. The Cybersecurity General Directorate, operating under the National Digital Infrastructure Coordination, aims to protect federal digital assets and ensure information security across government platforms. This development comes amid rising cybersecurity concerns, with Mexico facing 42.4 million malware attack attempts in 2024 – averaging 80 attacks per minute, with manufacturing (29.77%) and government institutions (20.89%) being primary targets. The ATDT’s primary objectives include developing digital infrastructure, promoting interoperability between government information systems, and strengthening technological sovereignty. The agency will implement cybersecurity strategies, coordinate information protection efforts, direct digital security training for public servants, and establish guidelines for secure use of information technologies across federal government operations.

El Economista, 1/24/25, Rodrigo Riquelme: Gobierno de Sheinbaum crea la Dirección General de Ciberseguridad.

 

Mexico investigates alleged attack by organized crime members on US patrol along the Rio Bravo riverbank.

The US-Mexico border is experiencing heightened tensions following Donald Trump’s inauguration. Fox News reported that Border Patrol agents were allegedly shot at by cartel members in Fronton, Texas, near the Tamaulipas border, while attempting to prevent illegal border crossings. Though no injuries were reported, the incident has further strained bilateral relations. Mexico’s Attorney General, Alejandro Gertz Manero, has requested official information from the US government to launch an investigation. Texas Department of Public Safety shared drone footage showing armed men in black near the riverbank, though no cartel insignias were visible. While Mexican authorities haven’t dismissed the report, they’re approaching it cautiously. This incident occurs amid particularly tense bilateral relations, exacerbated by Trump’s decision to classify cartels as terrorist organizations—a move some experts warn could potentially justify US military intervention in Mexico. The situation is further complicated by Trump’s aggressive anti-immigration policies, including mass deportations and asylum program cancellations.

El País, 1/28/25, Georgina Zerega: México indaga un supuesto ataque de criminales a una patrulla estadounidense en la ribera del Río Bravo.

 

Mexico Prepares to Ensure Security for 2026 World Cup.

Mexico has been actively preparing its security infrastructure for the 2026 FIFA World Cup through comprehensive interagency exercises and international training programs since 2019. The Mexican government, led by the Ministry of Defense, has developed specialized capabilities to handle high-impact incidents, including terrorist attacks, organized crime, and CBRNE (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosive) threats. Key exercises include simulations at Felipe Ángeles International Airport involving aircraft hijacking scenarios and chemical emergencies. The initiative has involved 19 government agencies and extensive personnel training across multiple countries, including the United States, Canada, Spain, Morocco, Italy, and Israel. A Trinational Operations Coordination Center has been established between Mexico, the US, and Canada to ensure collective security before, during, and after the 2026 World Cup. This unprecedented collaboration aims to protect millions of fans across 16 venues in what will be the first World Cup hosted by three nations with 42 participating countries.

Milenio, 1/27/25, Jonathan Collazo: México se prepara para garantizar la seguridad en el Mundial 2026.

 

10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025: United States – Mexico.

Mexico faces unprecedented levels of cartel violence amid escalating tensions with the incoming Trump administration. Since 2006, when President Calderón declared war on drug cartels, approximately half a million Mexicans have been killed and 100,000 have disappeared. Despite government efforts to dismantle major criminal organizations, smaller, well-armed groups have proliferated, funded primarily by fentanyl trafficking to the US. President Sheinbaum now confronts dual challenges: domestic drug violence and Trump’s aggressive policies, including threats of mass deportations, high tariffs, and potential military action against cartels. Trump’s designated National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, has advocated for authorization to use force against Mexican cartels. While Sheinbaum suggests that US-Mexico relations will endure, citing the previous successful cooperation between Trump and López Obrador on migration and trade, unilateral US military action could prove counterproductive, potentially triggering more territorial wars and fragmentation of criminal groups without addressing drug production fundamentals.

International Crisis Group, 1/1/25, Redacción: 10 conflictos para tener en la mira en 2025.

 

 

If you would like to talk to Fausto about our services in risk and security consulting, please email him at fausto.carbajal@miranda-partners.com

 

More information can be found at: https://miranda-partners.com/jvs-delphi-solutions/

 

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