Staying Above Water
Once again, Claudia Sheinbaum was required to appease Donald Trump and the threat of more tariffs. This time Trump accused Mexico of violating the 1944 Water Treaty by failing to deliver sufficient water to Texas farmers.
President Sheinbaum as now is to be expected responded intelligently and promptly, recognizing the treaty as “just” and asserting that Mexico is fulfilling its commitments – “to the extent allowed by current drought conditions.” She dismissed the possibility of renegotiation, emphasizing that the agreement benefits the U.S. more than Mexico due to the asymmetry of water volumes between the Colorado and Bravo rivers. “The issue isn’t political, it’s technical,” she insisted, citing near-record low water levels in the Río Bravo following nearly four years of drought.
The 1944 Water Treaty obligates Mexico to deliver an average of 350,000 acre-feet of water annually to the U.S. over five-year cycles, a quota that Mexico has historically met, though often with last-minute deliveries that draw political ire north of the border. The issue is further complicated by domestic water mismanagement and increased irrigation demands in northern states like Chihuahua and Tamaulipas.
The Governor of Chihuahua, María Eugenia Campos Galván, described water delivery to the United States, as stipulated in the 1944 International Water Treaty, as “impossible”, since the state is currently classified as experiencing “extreme drought” by the National Water Commission. Agriculture Secretary Julio Berdegué held a call with U.S. officials to reaffirm treaty commitments and promise immediate water deliveries where feasible. In parallel, Mexico’s foreign ministry and environmental authorities are working closely with U.S. counterparts to stabilize the situation before the current cycle ends in October.
Behind the diplomatic language is growing albeit low-level tension. Trump’s framing of the issue, accusing Mexico of harming Texan farmers, has gained traction in southern U.S. states, especially in Texas, where the Senate recently passed a resolution demanding full treaty enforcement. The economic consequences are already linked to stalled Lower Rio Grande Valley infrastructure permits. In seizing the moment, Trump tied the issue to the broader trade debate, warning that water shortages would be met with tariffs.
For Sheinbaum, the timing is delicate. Any perceived failure to meet treaty obligations could trigger a cascade of new tariffs from Trump, undermining her administration’s careful balancing act on trade. However, overcompensation could spark domestic backlash, especially from northern governors who are already frustrated by water scarcity.
Her strategy so far has followed a familiar playbook, first attempting to de-escalate, acknowledge the shortfall, blame the drought, and promise technical solutions. So far the strategy has bought time, with Trump moving onto other issues. buys time remains to be seen. Still border water has joined fentanyl, immigration, and trade in the growing list of bilateral pressure points—each one a potential trigger for economic retaliation.
Tech Truce? Mexico Eyes Opportunity Amid Tariff Turmoil
The White House temporarily exempted from tariffs smartphones, laptops, hard drives, and certain semiconductors. While this might not seem especially relevant for Mexico, as its USMCA compliant exports to the U.S. are tariff free, there is a positive side. Many of these products made in Mexico do not comply with USMCA due to heavy Asian import components, so might been liable for 25% tariffs on exports to the U.S.
The exemption, confirmed Friday night by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, removes key electronic goods from the 125% tariffs on Chinese imports and the broader 10% global tariff sweep. It’s not just about phones and laptops. The announcement also excludes the machines used to manufacture semiconductors, potentially opening space for Mexico to expand its role in the chipmaking ecosystem. The move is particularly relevant to firms like Foxconn, which unveiled plans to build a massive chip facility in Mexico to service Nvidia last year. Servers used for AI applications, increasingly assembled between Taiwan and Mexico, could now flow into the U.S. market without additional cost, if the exemption holds.
Still, the White House quickly tempered expectations. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and USTR Chief Jamieson Greer clarified that the exemption is provisional, part of a broader realignment toward “national security tariffs” that could target semiconductors within one or two months. Even Trump himself muddied the waters, claiming in a Truth Social post that “no one is exempt” and that tech goods are “moving into a different tariff bucket.”
Judicial Campaigns Get Testy: INE Orders Content Removal Over Equity Violations
Mexico’s unprecedented judicial elections just got messier. The National Electoral Institute (INE) ordered Supreme Court candidate Loretta Ortiz Ahlf and the Mexican Electricians’ Union (SME) to take down online content promoting an event deemed to violate electoral fairness rules. The decision stems from a forum held at SME’s facilities. Ortiz and other judicial candidates appeared in what the INE described as a campaign-style event that failed to meet neutrality standards.
The event, shared across YouTube, X, and the union’s website, did not comply with INE’s requirement that at least 50% of eligible candidates be invited to public forums. As a result, the Commission on Complaints unanimously issued precautionary measures requiring all related content to be removed from digital and print platforms under the control of Ortiz or the union.
A similar complaint was filed against another candidate for the Supreme Court, Justice Yasmín Esquivel Mossa, who attended a separate event titled “Dialogues for the Transformation of Justice in Mexico.” Although INE officials noted potential violations, such as use of government resources and printed campaign materials, the case was dismissed on procedural grounds: the offending posts had already been deleted before the vote.
Meanwhile, content shared by media outlets was allowed to remain online, as the Commission ruled it fell under constitutionally protected journalistic activity. The broader legal implications, including allegations of misuse of public and private funds, were referred to the Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF) for a final determination.
Ortiz responded to the ruling by defending her conduct and announcing plans to challenge the INE’s decision, asserting that she has always acted “within the bounds of legality, equity, and transparency.” With less than two months before the June 1 vote, the controversy signals a brewing storm over how far judicial candidates, and their allies, can go seeking public support.
The President of the TEPJF, Mónica Soto, stated that the INE does not have exclusive authority to speak about elections, promote voting, or share information related to the electoral process.
“Members of any of the branches of the Union may promote elections and the right to vote for educational and informational purposes, as long as they do not use self-promotional propaganda,” said Justice Soto. She explained that the June 1st election is unusual: political parties are excluded, but federal branches are expected to promote the process within legal limits. She stressed that the TEPJF will strictly enforce existing bans, yet this setup places the responsibility of encouraging voter participation on government institutions — raising concerns about neutrality and the line between information and influence.
Legislative Clock Ticks: Sheinbaum Eyes Last-Minute Telecom and Antitrust Reforms
As the end of the congressional session looms, President Claudia Sheinbaum is preparing to introduce two key reforms: economic competition and telecommunications. While the initiatives have yet to be formally submitted, congressional leaders expect them to arrive before April 30, to secure passage before the regular session closes. The urgency stems from the legal vacuum left by the dissolution of the IFT and Cofece, which has created uncertainty in regulatory oversight for critical sectors.
Ricardo Monreal, Morena’s majority leader in the lower house of Congress, confirmed that the two reforms are a legislative priority and are expected to be fast-tracked for debate and approval in the coming weeks. Their passage would close the constitutional loop left open by Sheinbaum’s controversial institutional overhaul.
Other reforms, however, are being pushed to a special session. Laws covering public security and intelligence and legislation on forced disappearances will be taken up in an extraordinary period projected for late June or July. The delay is part of a deliberate strategy to allow for further consultations with opposition parties and civil society. Sheinbaum has emphasized the importance of incorporating proposals from search collectives into the disappearance reform, while legislative teams continue to refine the national intelligence framework in dialogue with the Executive.
Contact:
Laura Camacho
Executive Director Miranda Public Affairs
laura.camacho@miranda-partners.com
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