Weekly Mexico Market Monitor 

Weekly Mexico Market Monitor

Friday AM, November 24, 2023

 

MARKETS

The FTSE-BIVA index closed on November 23 at 1,096.85 slightly up from its November 16 close at 1085.53.

The MXN/USD exchange rate strengthened to 17.19 pesos to the dollar on November 23, from its close of 17.23 pesos on November 16.

The Mexican 10-year bond (2031) closed on Thursday with a yield of 9.563%, down slightly from a yield of 9.396% on November 16.

The FTSE-BIVA Top Stock Gainers for the week were: OMA (+9.27%), GAP (+7.89%) and OHLA (+7.52%) and the Biggest Losers were: AXTEL (-9.21%), PEÑOLES (-2.93%) and ARCA (-2.92%).

 

CORPORATE & MARKET NEWS

Cemex’s Spanish subsidiary will pay tax-related fines totaling 456 million euros, or approximately US $500 million, after it was denied a legal appeal by a Spanish court, following an audit of the fiscal years 2006 to 2009. Meanwhile, Cemex Ventures, the corporate venture capital unit of the company, said it made an investment in French startup Vizcab, dedicated to helping reduce CO2 emissions along the construction value chain.

Eaton, the US-based manufacturer of electrical power-related components, will invest US $85 million in Queretaro to increase its production capacity by 50%.

LIV Capital Acquisition II and Covalto have terminated their plan to merge and take the Mexican fintech public. The deal was announced in August last year; LIV (the SPAC) will be dissolved, returning the funds to its investors.

GF Inbursa is nearing completion of its purchase of 80% of Cetelem Mexico from BNP Paribas, subject to regulatory approval. Cetelem Mexico, a large automotive finance firm, has a P$51.5 billion loan portfolio, with an NPL ratio of 0.7%, compared to GFINBUR’s 1.7%.

 

Nissan combined its operations in Latin America, bringing together Nissan Mexicana and Nissan South America into a single business unit, Nissan Latin America (LATAM).

Waldo’s will obtain $3.7 billion pesos of debt, in a deal structured by Capstone. The chain is about to reach 1,000 branches in the country.

Riverwood Capital, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm, is creating a US $1.8 billion fund to invest in mid-sized companies that can grow, placing special emphasis on Latin America.

Fibra Prologis, a real estate investment and management trust, purchased an industrial park in Nuevo Leon for US $32.7 million.

 

POLITICS 

In a high profile move against the Sinaloa Cartel, on Wednesday, Mexico’s National Guard Officers arrested the alleged security chief, Nestor Isidro Pérez Salas, of the “Chapitos” wing. The US DEA had posted a reward of US $3 million for information leading to his capture, as it is widely believed he is central to the Fentanyl operation in Mexico.

Morena, the ruling party, continues to seek to approve a labor reform that will reduce the working week from 6 to 5 days, and the maximum time worked from 48 to 40 hours, although legislative approval remains uncertain. Business representatives of the country such as the Employers’ Confederation of the Mexican Republic (Coparmex) have already expressed their opposition to the labor reform.

Adolfo Enríquez, an activist and journalist who documented murders in the city of Leon, was killed on Tuesday. His investigative work was praised for solving numerous killings, including the femicide of Milagros Montserrat. Enriquez published the video of the killings and also the details of the assailant, who was finally arrested.

A new Mitofsky/El Economista poll showed Claudia Sheinbaum with 57.5% of the vote, leading Galvez by 26.4 points. However, this impressive lead does not take into account those who did not declare the direction of their vote or said they would not vote.

 

TRADE & ECONOMICS

Mexico’s final estimate of 3Q23 GDP growth was 1.1% QOQ and 3.3% YOY, slightly better than the earlier estimate. This reflects lower industrial and primary activity, but improved services sector performance. The Economic Activity Index (IGAE) increased for the sixth month, showing a faster growth in September at 0.6% MOM and 3.7% YOY, outpacing August’s figures. Over the first nine months of 2023, the growth rate was 3.4% YOY. However, in October the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity, or IOAE, registered a drop of 0.07%. This is the first drop in productive activity in seven months and follows a fall in Mexican consumer spending for the third consecutive month in September.

According to the CNBV, the number of credit cards in Mexico increased from 28.6 million in 2021 to more than 31.6 million in 2022. The most recent report on financial inclusion also highlights a 14% increase in the number of payroll loans and also that for every 10,000 adults, there are more than 15,400 debit cards.

Inflation in Mexico advanced 0.63% during the first half of November compared to the previous 15 days, leading to annual inflation of 4.32%, which represented the largest biweekly increase in two years, according to data from INEGI. Core inflationary pressures eased. However, the Central Bank published slightly less hawkish minutes from its latest board meetings, preparing for rate cuts next year.

 

NEWS ABOUT MEXICO IN THE FOREIGN PRESS

22/11/2023, Reuters, Deep Vakil and Daksh Grover

22/11/2023, The Guardian, AP

22/11/2023, The Washington Post, Associated Press

22/11/2023, El País, Elisa Villa Román

23/11/2023, Bloomberg, Andrew Rosati & Maria Eloisa Capurro

21/11/2023, Bloomberg, Michael O’Boyle and Carolina Millan

21/11/2023, Reuters, Staff

21/11/2023, The Wall Street Journal, Becky Yerak

21/11/2023, National Geographic, Rick Pinedo

20/11/2023, Reuters, Gabriel Burin & Isabel Martinez

18/11/2023, The Washington Post, Daniel Shailer

11/22/23, Reuter’s, David Alire Garcia