MARKETS
The S&P / BMV IPC was up 1.1% over the week, sharply outperforming crashing US equity indices, after Mexico emerged mostly unscathed from US President Trump’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff announcement and thus well placed to receive more nearshoring investment. The Mexican Peso joined the relief rally, breaking the 20.0/USD barrier to close at 19.94/USD, for a 1.8% gain, while the yield of the 10-year M-Bono fell 38 bps to 9.04%.
The S&P / BMV IPC’s top stock gainers for the week were: CUERVO * (+16.8%), BBAJIO O (+10.8%) and PEÑOLES * (+10.5%). The main losers were: CEMEX CPO (-9.3%), GMEXICO B (-4.0%) and TLEVISA CPO (-3.3%).
The following macroeconomic indicators will be announced during the week: monetary policy minutes, inflation rate, industrial production, and light vehicle exports and production.
LISTED COMPANIES
Jaime Muguiro officially began his tenure as CEO of Cemex on April 1st, following the retirement of Fernando González. Cemex now shifts from financial stabilization to growth, looking primarily at opportunities in the US. Cemex also announced that it will redeem US$1 billion in 9.125% senior subordinated notes at 101% of face value due to a change in the ratings methodology. The company will use US$500 million in cash and a US$500 million revolving line.
GCarso has met the conditions to sell its affiliate Giant Cement Holdings Inc. to Heidelberg Materials US Inc. for US$600 million.
GAP’s subsidiary MBJ Airports Limited extended a US$60 million credit line until October 4th, 2029. The loan carries a monthly interest rate of SOFR plus 200 basis points and semiannual payments of US$6 million.
Alpek’s shareholders approved a MXN$2.0 billion share buyback fund for 2025 at their annual meeting. Five new board members were elected, bringing the average tenure to 5.6 years. The board now consists of 86% independent directors.
Inbursa will sell a 49.9% equity stake in its subsidiary STM Financial, which provides loans for Stellantis’ customers, to the car maker. No amount was provided.
Vinte announced a MXN$2.7 billion (US$132 million) investment in the Real Bilbao housing project in Zapotlán de Juárez, Hidalgo, which will add 2,600 homes priced between MXN$670,000 and MXN$1.1 million. The development aligns with the federal government’s housing plan and is expected to create 18,800 jobs.
Fibra Inn will propose the creation of a new MXN$250 million buyback reserve, effective for the next 12 months, at its April 30th Holders’ Meeting.
Fibra Storage has opened the “Anahuac” branch, and has acquired a fully rented mini-warehouse U-Storage building in Mexico City for MXN$181.5 million, which will become its 33rd and 34th properties in operation. The Fibra also announced it has sold 236,617 treasury CBFIs in the stock market.
OTHER COMPANIES
CFE plans to invest US$2.29 billion in 65 transmission projects during the current administration and is executing 59 more to boost reliability. It’s main objective is to increase substation capacity by 1,511 MVA, strengthen transformer protections, and develop smart grid projects to improve network availability and service response.
Nubank plans to expand its financial services in Mexico during 2025 if it obtains a banking license, including payroll portability, business accounts, and possibly a premium card like Brazil’s Ultravioleta.
The Mexican Bank Association (ABM) officially appointed Emilio Romano as its new president for the 2025-2027 period. Mr. Romano is the chairman of Bank of America’s local unit.
Sempra plans to sell assets in Mexico, including Ecogas and a minority stake in Sempra Infrastructure, to fund investments in Texas and California and boost earnings. Such deals may close within 12 to 18 months.
TRADE AND ECONOMICS
Hacienda released the 2026 Economic Policy Pre-criteria. 2025 GDP growth was revised down to a still optimistic range between 1.5-2.3% due to a slower pace of residential investment, the persistence of supply shocks, and uncertainty about US trade policies. Hacienda also expects GDP growth between 1.5-2.5% in 2026, a 3.9-4.0% fiscal deficit in 2025 and 3.2-3.5% in 2026, an inflation rate of 3.5% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, a year-end FX rate of 20.0 in 2025 and 19.7% in 2026, and a price of the Mexican oil mix of US$62.0/barrel in 2025 and US$55.3/barrel in 2026. The fiscal prudence was well received by analysts, even if skepticism remains on whether this will be achieved.
Economists revised their 2025 GDP growth forecast to a more cautious 0.41%, from 0.80%, and anticipate a 1.59% expansion in 2026, down from 1.65%, according to Banxico’s March 2025 Survey of Private Sector Economic Specialists. They also project an inflation rate of 3.72% for 2025, slightly down from 3.75%, and 3.72% for 2026, from 3.74%. Core inflation expectations rose to 3.79% for 2025 from 3.77%, while the 2026 forecast remained at 3.67%. Economists foresee Banco de México’s key interest rate closing at 7.97% in 2025, from 8.19%, and 7.26% in 2026, from 7.40%. They expect a YE FX rate of 20.85 in 2025, down from 20.88, and 21.23 in 2026, from 21.28.
The Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP) was down 0.3% MoM (seasonally adjusted) in January 2025. Domestic consumption of goods and services fell 0.3% MoM, while imported goods consumption decreased 0.1% MoM. The IMCP declined 1.3% YoY (original data) mainly as a result of a 7.9% YoY reduction in imported goods and a 0.1% YoY increase in domestic goods.
Gross fixed investment dropped 1.5% MoM (seasonally adjusted) in January, following a 2.8% MoM decline in December. This included a 1.4% MoM fall in construction activity and a 1.8% MoM decrease in machinery and equipment. Gross fixed investment fell 6.7% YoY (original data) in January, the fifth consecutive month with an annual drop. Construction investment was down 9.9% YoY, while spending on machinery and equipment fell 3.2% YoY.
Remittances were down 0.8% YoY to US$4.46 billion in February, which was the first annual decline in 12 years for a similar month, according to Banco de Mexico. This resulted from a 0.2% decrease in the number of transactions, while the average amount declined 0.6%.
The unemployment rate held steady at 2.5% in February 2025, unchanged from February 2024, INEGI reported.
Mexico created 34,179 formal jobs in March, according to IMSS. The total number of registered IMSS workers thus increased 0.8% YoY to 22.47 million, slightly higher than February’s 0.6% YoY rise.
The business confidence index fell 0.8 points MoM and 5.4 points YoY (seasonally adjusted) to 49.3 in March, according to INEGI.
Light vehicle sales increased 1.3% YoY to 127,352 units in March 2025, according to INEGI. This marked the sixth consecutive month of growth in domestic sales.
CETES auction: 27-day CETES -22 bps to 8.80%; 91-day CETES -15 bps to 8.74%; 182-day CETES -15 bps to 8.69% and 363-day CETES -31 bps to 8.68%.
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