MARKETS
After a particularly volatile week, the S&P / BMV IPC index was down -4.8%, now underperforming the US market, after Trump’s decision to pause most tariffs (except, notably, those on China, who got another big increase) only partly reversing earlier losses, with recession fears still very much on the spotlight. The Mexican Peso lost 2.7% to close at 20.47/USD, while the yield of the 10-year M-Bono was up 46 bps to 9.50%.
The S&P / BMV IPC’s stock gainers for the week were scarce: just GCARSO A1 (+0.6%) and LACOMER UBC (+0.2%). On the other hand, the main losers declined by double-digits: GCC * (-13.3%), PEÑOLES * (-12.0%) and ORBIA * (-11.7%).
LISTED COMPANIES
Tiendas 3B reported a 32.7% increase in 4Q24 revenues mainly due to 484 store openings over the last 12 months, bringing the total to 2,772 units, but also boosted by a strong 11.8% SSS growth in the quarter, well above ANTAD’s 2.6%. Gross profit advanced 34.2% with an 18-bps margin expansion to 16.5% mainly due to improved supplier terms as the company leveraged its growing scale. EBITDA grew 51.1%, helped by an increase in other income resulting from balance sheet clean-ups. These effects were partially offset by higher administrative expenses. The EBITDA margin improved 63 bps to 5.2%. The company registered a MXN$24 million net loss in 4Q24, narrowing from a MXN$97 million net loss in 4Q23. For 2025, management expects SSS to grow between 11%-14% and total sales to rise 26%-29% in 2025, with some 500-550 new store openings far ahead of other listed retailers.
Asur’s total passenger traffic rose 1.2% YoY to 6.5 million in March 2025, driven by a 13.7% increase in Puerto Rico and a 3.1% gain in Colombia, which offset a 3.0% decline in Mexico.
Gap’s total passenger traffic rose 5.6% YoY to 5.75 million in March 2025. Domestic traffic increased 12.6% to 3.04 million, while international traffic declined 1.3% to 2.71 million. Available seats rose 9.0%, though the load factor dropped to 81.5%, from last year’s 84.0% level.
Oma’s total passenger traffic increased 11.8% YoY to 2.34 million in March 2025, with domestic traffic up 11.9% and international traffic rising 11.5%.
Volaris’ total passenger traffic increased 12.3% YoY to 2.60 million in March 2025. Domestic traffic rose 15.3%, while international traffic was up 4.2%. Available Seat Miles (ASMs) grew 10.9% while the load factor declined 2.4 PP to 84.4%.
Bolsa announced that 1Q25 total equity trading value increased 19% YoY with domestic trading up 9% and global market rising 42%. The derivatives market saw a 23% increase in total volume to 75,130 contracts. Medium and long-term issuances dropped 52% in volume and 60% in value to MXN$39.5 billion, while short-term listings declined 6% in volume but rose 22% in value to MXN$85.7 billion. There were no equity or FIBRA listings in the period.
Grupo Herdez will propose the spin-off of Grupo Nutrisa at its April 23rd shareholders’ meeting. The company will also propose a MXN$2.5 billion share buyback reserve and a MXN$2.50/share cash dividend payment (MXN$1.50/share as an ordinary dividend and MXN$1.00/share as an extraordinary dividend).
Grupo Rotoplas will propose the creation of a MXN$1.0 billion share buy back reserve, among other items, as its April 25th Annual Ordinary Shareholders’ Meeting. Such a reserve will represent 18% of the company’s market cap.
FMTY successfully completed the US$106 million acquisition of an industrial property located in León, Guanajuato which is fully leased to Mercado Libre. The transaction, originally disclosed on March 24th, 2025, involves a state-of-the-art facility, featuring a total GLA of approximately 82,250 square meters. This transaction was financed with proceeds from the equity issuance completed in early 2024.
FibraHotel announced that Jorge Sandor Valner Watsein and Felipe de Yturbe Bernal resigned on April 2nd, 2025, from their positions as proprietary and independent members of its Technical Committee. The committee now includes nine proprietary members, four of whom are independent.
OTHER COMPANIES
CFE gave an update on its investment plan for the 2025–2030 period. The company will invest US$31.5 billion in generation, transmission, and distribution projects. The plan includes 29,074 megawatts of new capacity, with MXN$428 billion allocated specifically for transmission. The company aims to expand the number of substations from 86 to 97.
The total loan portfolio of the Mexican banking sector grew 13.4% YoY to MXN$7.7 trillion, according to CNBV data. This included an 18.8% increase in financial entities, +18.8% in the consumer segment, +15.1% YoY in the enterprise segment, +7.2% in housing, +3.8% in government entities and +2.4% in states and municipalities. The sector’s NPL ratio remained basically unchanged at a low 2.03% level, the ROE declined slightly to 17.98%, while the capitalization ratio stood at 19.46% (January figure).
Volvo will increase its planned investment in a new heavy truck assembly plant in Ciénaga de Flores, Nuevo León from US$700 million to US$1 billion. The facility will begin operations in 2026 and will support Volvo Trucks’ and Mack Trucks’ growth in the US, Canada, and Latin America.
Unilever has increased the projected investment in a new plant in Salinas Victoria, Nuevo León, from US$400 million to US$800 million. Such facility will produce personal care products for the US and Canada. The project will create 850 direct jobs, 800 indirect ones, and 120 more positions later.
Lego announced a US$508 million expansion of its plant in Ciénega de Flores, Nuevo León, bringing its total investment in the site to US$1.5 billion.
TRADE AND ECONOMICS
The inflation rate was 0.31% in March, INEGI reported, in line with the 0.31% expectation according to the last Citi Mexico Expectations Survey. The core inflation rate was 0.43%, also matching the 0.43% consensus forecast. This translated into a last twelve-month inflation rate of 3.80% (vs. 3.80% E) and a core inflation rate of 3.64% (vs. 3.64% E).
Banco de Mexico released the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting. The Governing Board estimates that going forward, it could continue calibrating the monetary stance and consider adjusting it by a similar amount. It anticipates that the inflationary environment will allow for the continuation of the cycle of cuts to the reference rate, while maintaining a restrictive stance. The actions implemented will ensure that the reference rate is consistent, at all times, with the trajectory required to foster an orderly and sustained convergence of headline inflation to the 3% target within the planned timeframe.
Economists expect a 50-bps reduction in Banco de Mexico’s key interest rate in the May 2025 monetary policy meeting, according to April’s Citi Mexico Expectations Survey. They also forecast that the rate will end 2025 at 8.00% (unchanged) and 2026 at 7.00% (down from 7.50%). GDP growth projections fell to 0.3% (from 0.6%) in 2025 and 1.5% (from 1.7%) in 2026, while inflation estimates moved slightly to 3.78% (from 3.80%) in 2025 and remained at 3.78% for 2026. Core inflation was revised to 3.76% (from 3.75%) in 2025 and 3.70% (from 3.66%) in 2026. The year-end FX rate is now seen at 20.90 (from 20.98) in 2025 and 21.30 (from 21.50) in 2026.
The Producer Price Index (INPP) increased 0.05% MoM in March 2025 and 7.29% YoY. Intermediate goods prices dropped 0.28% MoM but rose 7.93% YoY, while final goods prices rose 0.17% MoM and 7.05% YoY.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) decreased 0.3 pts. MoM to 46.0 points in March. This took place as a result of a 1.1 point drop in the “expected situation of the country over the next 12 months” component and a 0.3 point fall in the “current situation of the country compared to the previous 12 months” component. The CCI declined 1.3 points YoY.
Light vehicle production increased 12.2% YoY to 338,669 units in March 2025, INEGI reported. Meanwhile, light vehicle exports rose 3.8% YoY to 296,964 units.
Claudia Sheinbaum announced 18 measures and actions of the Plan México, which are aimed at strengthening the domestic market and salaries, increase food and energy sovereignty; increase domestic production by reducing imports from countries without trade agreements; and strengthen welfare programs.
CETES auction: 28-day CETES unchanged at 8.80%; 91-day CETES -4 bps to 8.70%; 175-day CETES -14 bps to 8.55% and 707-day CETES -28 bps to 8.75%.
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