Mexico Market Chatter – June 26 to July 3, 2025

MARKETS

The S&P / BMV IPC was up 0.7% to close at 57,890.99 pts, fueled by the rally in US equity markets which benefitted from the approval of Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” by the House of Representatives, the trade agreement with Vietnam and higher-than-expected non-farm payrolls. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso appreciated another 1.2% at MXN$18.65/USD, and the yield of the 10-year M-Bono was down 4 bps to 9.31%.

The S&P / BMV IPC’s top gainers for the week were: ALFA A (+10.7%), ORBIA * (+7.0%) and GENTERA * (+6.2%). On the other hand, the main losers were: WALMEX * (-4.2%), TLEVISA CPO (-3.8%) and LACOMER UBC (-3.7%).

LISTED COMPANIES

GMéxico Transportes’ shareholders approved the delisting of the company’s shares from the Mexican Bolsa. The company will launch a tender offer once it receives approval from the CNBV. GCarso will remain as a shareholder after the delisting and does not plan to participate in the tender offer.

Traxion has concluded the acquisition of Solistica, an integrated logistics services company which was previously owned by Femsa. The originally agreed price was MXN$4.04 billion. However, Traxion sold the Brazil and Colombia operations for MXN$2.39 billion, resulting in a net cash investment of MXN$1.65 billion for Solistica’s Mexican operations. This business unit is expected to generate revenues of MXN$8 billion with an EBITDA margin between 4.0% and 5.0% in 2025; Traxion will begin to consolidate it as of July 1st. As a result, the company anticipates that its Logistics and Technology Division will represent 50% of consolidated revenues on an annualized basis.

Industrias Peñoles informed that the 10-month strike in its Minera Tizapa unit (51% owned by Peñoles) has concluded. The stock was up 5.2% on this news.

As previously announced Christian Gurría became Alsea’s CEO effective July 1st, 2025.

Next July 9th, GFNorte’s Banorte plans to carry out a voluntary early redemption of MXN$2.0 billion in Bank Securities Certificates with ticker symbol BANORTE 24.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte announced it has completed a MXN$2.75 billion offer of long-term domestic notes (“Certificados Bursátiles”).

Gentera obtained an increase in its credit line with Banco Actinver from MXN$300 million pesos to MXN$600 million, and an increase in its credit line with Banco del Bajío from MXN$200 million pesos to MXN$500 million pesos. Compartamos Banco, S.A., in Peru, obtained an increase in its credit line with the Cooperation Fund for Social Development, from $15 million soles to $20 million soles.

Médica Sur has issued MXN$1.0 billion in two sustainable Long-Term Bonds including: i) MEDICA 25X: MXN$200 million in a 3-year bond with a floating rate of TIIE + 74 bps; and, ii) MEDICA 25-2X: MXN$800 million in a 5-year bond with a fixed rate of 10.05%. The issue received a credit rating of “HR AAA” from HR Ratings and “AA(mex)” from Fitch Ratings. In the sustainability area, it has a Favorable opinion from HR Ratings. This was Médica Sur’s first labeled bond issue, as well as the first sustainable bond issued by a hospital group in Latin America.

Lacomer opened a new “City Market Café”, in Mexico City. This unit required a MXN$68.2 million investment and is expected to generate 92 formal jobs.

OTHER COMPANIES

BYD has cancelled its plans to build a plant in Mexico, according to newspaper reports.

Mercado Libre’s streaming platform Mercado Play has reached 7.7 million downloads in Latin America, of which 2.1 million were in Mexico, in just after 3 months of launching.  

JAC Motors will invest MXN$3.0 billion to expand production capacity in its Mexico facility to 60,000 vehicles carrying the “Hecho en México” brand. This investment is expected to create 1,000 direct and 4,500 indirect jobs.

Argentine payment services startup Tapi has acquired the bill payment and cash management operations bit not SPEI functionality of Arcus, a Mastercard subsidiary, in an all-cash deal. Details were not disclosed.

Klar has closed a US$190 million Series C round (US$170 million in equity and US$20 million in debt), which was led by General Atlantic and included Prosus, IFC. Mouro Capital, Quona Capital, Grupo Santander, Grupo Televisa and Grupo Fórmula as investors.

Transition Industries LLC plans to invest US$3.3 billion to build a methanol plant in Mexico.  

ECONOMIC

Economists revised their 2025 inflation forecast upward to 4.07%, from 3.97%, and increased slightly their 2026 projection to 3.75%, from 3.73%, according to the latest Banco de México Private Sector Expectations Survey. Core inflation for 2025 also rose to 4.07%, from 3.95%, while the 2026 forecast remained flat at 3.69%. GDP growth expectations for 2025 improved to 0.13%, from 0.08%, but were revised down to 1.31% for 2026, from 1.36%. The Mexican peso is now expected to end 2025 at 20.16 per dollar, down from 20.43, and 2026 at 20.64, from 20.81. They foresee a YE25 target rate of 7.44%, from 7.51%, while the YE26 rate held steady at 6.77%.

Remittances fell 4.6% YoY to US$5.36 billion in May 2025, Banco de Mexico reported. This was the second consecutive annual reduction. As a result, remittances were down 3.0% YoY to US$24.375 billion in the first five months of the year.

Private consumption rebounded 1.1% MoM (seasonally adjusted) in April, driven mainly by a 1.5% increase in demand for domestic goods and services, which offset a 1.0% decline in imported goods and services, according to INEGI. However, private consumption declined 1.7% YoY (original data), dragged down by a surprising 14.3% reduction in imported goods and services and a 1.1% rise in domestic ones.

Gross fixed investment fell 1.7% MoM (seasonally adjusted) in April, mainly due to a 2.2% contraction in machinery and equipment and a 1.1% decline in construction activity, according to INEGI. Gross fixed investment tumbled 12.5% YoY (original data), as a result of a sizeable 16.0% drop in machinery and equipment and a 9.2% fall in construction activity.

The Business Confidence Index stood at 48.7 pts in June 2025, unchanged on a monthly basis, but declining 4.5 points against June last year.

The unemployment rate reached 2.7% in May 2025, with a slight 10 bps MoM and YoY increase, according to INEGI.

Light vehicle sales declined 5.9% YoY to 116,059 units in June 2025, INEGI reported. As a result, cumulative sales for the January-June period fell 0.2% YoY to 709,341 units.

Hacienda announced it has prepaid two international bonds amounting to US$3.6 billion which reduced next year’s amortizations to a minimum level. Hacienda financed itself with the MXN$18.0 billion operating surplus from Banco de Mexico corresponding to 2024 results and the funds it raised last June 23rd with a bond issuance.

Mexico’s lower house approved a revised telecommunications reform bill that replaces the independent Federal Telecommunications Institute (IFT) with a new Digital Transformation Agency under presidential control. The bill is expected to be signed into law by President Claudia Sheinbaum.

CETES auction: 28-day CETES -30 bps to 7.70%; 91-day CETES +15 bps to 8.08%; 174-day CETES +9 bps to 8.18% and 679-day CETES flat at 8.60%.

 

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